My Lamppost

Delegate totals are current as of the Puerto Rico primary held on June 1, 2008. The Republican nominee needs 1,191 delegates to be nominated and John McCain has already amassed that total. The Democratic nominee ONCE required 2,025 delegates to be nominated but that total changed after Michigan and Florida Democratic primary totals were re-distributed on Saturday, May 31, 2008. The Democratic nominee NOW NEEDS 93 additional delegates bringing the total to be nominated to 2,118 delegates.

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Only Montana (16 pledged delegates) and South Dakota (15 pledged delegates) are left on the Democratic primary schedule, slated for Tuesday, June 3, 2008. According to My Lamppost, Barack Obama is 47 delegates away from clinching the Democratic nomination for President. Hillary Clinton is 203 votes shy and cannot clinch with the two remaining primaries since the total for both equals 31 pledged delegate. Of course, according to delegate rules, the delegates are really the ones to decide at the Denver convention.

It is noted by many journalists and newspapers that Obama has the edge in the Montana and South Dakota primaries and assuming he musters 50% of pledged delegates, he will walk away tomorrow with 16 total pledged delegates, leaving him 31 delegates shy of the finish line. News today came out of Washington that the remaining 17 super delegates from the Senate will pledge to Obama but they will wait until after the final primary day tomorrow to commit and to also give their fellow Senator Clinton time to gracefully leave the race.

Assuming Obama wins 16 pledged delegates tomorrow and then is handed 17 super delegate votes in a few days, his delegate total nears 33, leaving him just 14 delegates shy. At this point or before, Clinton should leave the race. If she doesn’t, look for the DNC powers-that-be to step in to mediate (or mandate, depending on Clinton’s view) a settlement. Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House, was quoted as saying that there will be resolution by the end of June (read: before her Summer vacation begins). Clinton surely believes she will fare better against McCain and has the demographic support in the Democratic party that Obama doesn’t. Would would-be Clinton voters really vote McCain if she isn’t hte nominee? We’ll see. Would Clinton accept the VP role if offered by Obama? Or will she take the battle all the way to the Denver convention? Out of pressure, the odds are that she won’t take this to Denver. it will be an interesting talk between Pelosi and Clinton if this goes another 30 days.

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On Saturday, May 31, 2008, the Democratic Rules and Bylaws convened to decide if to or how to distribute Michigan and Florida Democratic primary delegate counts.

If you recall, the Michigan and Florida Democratic primaries were held sooner than were planned and the DNC penalized both states deciding at the time to not count any of the totals. Therefore, at the time, neither Clinton nor Obama walked away with additional delegates as a result of those primaries.

However, at the time, both states held their own primaries and Clinton won both, 55% of the vote in Michigan equaling 69 delegates and 50% of the vote in Florida amassing 105 delegates. At the time, John Edwards was still in the running (he quit the day after the Florida primary, on Wednesday, January 30, 2008). In Michigan, 40% of the vote went to “uncommitted”.

The issues that the DNC Rules and Bylaws committee had before them were the following:

• Obama did not campaign in either state because the DNC issued its “delegates will not count” ruling before those primaries,
• No one knew how voters would vote had they been told that their primaries would count, and
• No one can predict where the 40% of “uncommitted” Michigan votes would have gone. Would they have gone for Obama or Edwards or would they have split? Would some have gone for Clinton?

Of course, Hillary Clinton is opposed to any ruling that does not grant her the delegate totals she amassed in those two primaries in January. After all, she is hundreds of delegates behind Obama and desperately needs all of the support she can muster. Obama isn’t sweating the details because he is in the drivers seat and was part of the negotiations in splitting delegates in half.

The Ruling

The Democratic Rules and Bylaws Committee yesterday on Saturday, May 31, 2008, to raucous jeers, announced that the Michigan and Florida delegates could attend the Democratic National Convention in Denver but that each delegate vote would count as a half vote, not a full one. Clinton is just not peeved at the Committee for halving votes but also for distributing more Michigan votes to Obama than she thought he deserved. Cleqarly, the assumption was made (see chart below) that Obama would have amassed most of the “uncommitted” votes.

You’d think that John McCain is smiling and laughing as the Democrats engage in sordid infighting but the feeling here is that all publicity is good publicity. Obama is not desperate and it surely appears as though he will gain the nomination. The Michigan and Florida delegate decision over shadowed Clinton’s win in Puerto Rico and it keeps McCain off the front pages. Incidentally, Obama asked supporters to stay away from Washington yesterday during the vote so as not to antagonize Clinton and her supporters. He will most assuredly need them in the Fall. However, many Clinton supporters interviewed yesterday threatened to switch party allegiances if the Committee maintained the “half-vote” decision.

MICHIGAN PRIMARY RESULTS

FLORIDA PRIMARY RESULTS

Commentary

It appears unfair to Hillary Clinton and advantageous to Barack Obama that the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee on May 31st decided to not only hand over all “uncommitted” Michigan votes to Obama but that he received 4 additiional delegates, as well. Since John Edwards was still in the race, it is quite reasonable to assume that Obama would not have amassed the full 40%. However, it is possible that either one would have eaten into Clinton’s 55% had they campaigned in Michigan as Clinton did. (Obama didn’t campaign in Florida either).

So, what’s fair? Honestly, what’s wrong with Michigan and Florida voting again? - this time on the same day, with a caveat: neither Obama nor Clinton is allowed to campaign in either state. Set up a final debate between the two of them and then let the voters decide. Clearly, the no-campaigning rule seems to benefit Clinton since she is out of money but every voter in America has seen and heard from these two enough to have an opinion. A debate would bring us current.

It is not fair to deprive citizens of the United States their right to vote. Each vote should be counted - even though the delegates can vote their own conscience at the convention but that’s another story. It doesn’t matter if 2 additional primaries are inconvenient or costs too much money. It’s the right thing to do. I know, I know, you’re saying that it’s a foregone conclusion that Obama will win. It appears as though he will win. It still, however, does not give us the right to deprive Americans of a voting voice. Do the right thing!

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Yeah, yeah, Barack Obama has swept the past 9 consecutive democratic primaries by my count, has grabbed the spotlight and has the edge in charisma. As a result, you’d think that he was ahead by a McCain-country mile.

Well, after his 9-state sweep, Obama is ahead by only 98 delegates with the March 4th democratic primary elections upcoming. (On March 4th, Democratic state primaries are held in Rhode Island, Vermont, Texas, and Ohio.) Because the Democratic primaries were not winner take all primaries, Hillary Clinton was apportioned delegates based on her percentage of votes, thus keeping the 2nd place finisher in the race. But, it is getting tight now.

What does Obama’s 98 delegate lead mean? Is he ahead by a McCain country-mile or is the Democratic race basically tied?

If you look at the number of state primaries remaining (14) as well as the number of delegates up for grabs (922), you’d think the race was about tied and that no matter the results of March 4th, Hillary Clinton would still live to fight another day.

But, on closer look, it appears Hillary Clinton has to win either Ohio or Texas to remain in the race.

Here’s why:
Given the past 9 primaries, Obama has won by an average of 64%. Let’s say he sweeps the March 4th primaries (TX, OH, VT, RI) with the same vote percentage and let’s say Clinton takes the remaining 36%. Obama would win 237 out of 370 pledged delegates available while Clinton would capture 133, leaving them with 1,609 and 1,407 delegates, respectively. The math says that Obama would be ahead by 202 delegates, not counting superdelegates. A lead of 202 delegates with momentum could prove insurmountable given that the state primaries that follow, even though they represent the remaining 720 delegates, really do not have many delegates to give separately, other than Pennsylvania and Indiana.

If Clinton loses Texas and Ohio, she would have to literally shut out Obama in Pennsylvania and Indiana to come back which in all likelihood won’t happen given Obama’s would-be momentum and that we’d be in the homestretch of the primary race.

Remaining Democratic State Primaries:

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