One of the first comments we heard within days of Sarah Palin being selected as the Republican Vice Presidential nominee was that she was chosen solely to attract the Hillary Clinton vote. Many men and mostly women under the Lamppost were appalled, I think with a bit of oh-my-gosh help from journalists, that McCain would think women stupid enough to fall for such a political trick. We never do mind the outrage. After all, political ideology is an outgrowth of our social, religious, economic, and sometimes conditioned beliefs. What was interesting was the inference that choosing Palin was an unprecedented political strategy never attempted in American politics.

To repeat, as we have many times previously, the Lamppost is chock full of baby-boomers and is bipartisan in a sort of Lars Larsen-like way (did you see his measured responses on Larry King Live wrapups after each Convention this summer amidst the partisan demagogues?). The words of those under the Lamppost might be skewed one way or the other but our Commentary is not. We sift through the opinions and outrages and dish just the facts, or in this case, political precedents.

There is no doubt that one strong reason, if not the main reason, Sarah Palin was chosen to accompany John McCain on the Republican Presidential ticket was to steal Hillary Clinton votes from the Democrats. Sentiment was strong against Obama amongst Clinton supporters after Hillary grudgingly handed over her delegates to unify the Democratic Party. Some interviewed parties and bloggers threatened to never vote for Obama, that he was too green (Hillary called him “too inexperienced”) and did not represent their ideology. They even threatened to either not vote at all - thus holding back their delegate vote if they had one - or cross the aisle and vote for McCain. McCain supporters took note.

The Name of the Political Game is to get Elected

In 1952, two elections prior to Kennedy’s win in 1960, Democratic nominee Adlai Stevenson won only 9 states against Republican Dwight Eisenhower. Stevenson’s wins came mostly in the Bible Belt of America: Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Louisiana, Arkansas, Kentucky and West Virginia. He did not even win his home state of Illinois where he was the sitting Governor.

In 1956, the election prior to Kennedy’s win in 1960, Adlai Stevenson again ran against Eisenhower, now the incumbent President. Again, Stevenson faired poorly winning only 7 states and all coming again from the Bible Belt: Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Missouri, and Arkansas. This time, Louisiana, Kentucky and West Virginia voted the other way and yet again, his home state of Illinois, failed to support him.

Fast forward to the 1960 election for Kennedy - an uphill climb for Democrats at best considering historical trends. Kennedy, a Catholic from Massachusetts, needed a running mate to help attract votes outside of the Bible Belt and the northeast. He needed to appeal to conservative southern voters. Senator Stuart Symington of Missouri was favored by Kennedy’s family and advisors. Kennedy liked Symington but the Democrats had won in Missouri in 1956. Kennedy needed broader appeal and he also had to face down the issues of the day including the sagging economy, Cuba, the Soviet’s perceived space and missile advantage over the United States and, of course, his Catholicism. So, Kennedy chose Senator Lyndon Johnson of Texas, the reigning Senate Majority Leader.

As we all know, Kennedy, with a bit of help from television and his father, Joe Kennedy, won the election in 1960 to become the 35th president of the United States. He did win the Bible Belt and he did win the northeastern states of Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Pennsylvania and Maryland.

But, because of Johnson, he also won Texas, New Mexico, Nevada, Minnesota, and Michigan. He won Adlai Stevenson’s state of Illinois, a state Stevenson himself couldn’t win in two tries. And he got back West Virginia.

How important was Lyndon Johnson to Kennedy? Kennedy won the popular vote by 119,450 votes. He won the electoral vote by a wider margin: 303-219. However, take away Texas’ 24 electoral votes, New Mexico’s 4 electoral votes and Louisiana’s 10 electoral votes, and Kennedy does not win.

Without Lyndon Johnson, Kennedy does not win. Without a running mate leveraged for political advantage, Richard Nixon is elected President in 1960, not in 1969.

Oh, and by the way…

Here’s the kicker: there was no one on the face of the earth that Kennedy disliked more than Lyndon Johnson.

The name of the political game is to get elected.

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It’s been a few weeks since the Democratic and Republican National Conventions have wrapped up. Usually, one party will enjoy a pretty nice spike in approval rating right after their Convention has ended. This year, however, it just didn’t happen. Both parties experienced approval ratings far less than 10%. In the weeks since the Convention ended, McCain had a slight edge in the National polls but Obama has edged ahead the past couple of days and might hold that lead, at least in the short-term, as McCain suspends his campaign to go back to Washington to try to help negotiate a better Bailout Bill.

Clinton last night on Larry King live mentioned that each party has about a 45% voting base. Don’t know if he’s right but even if he’s off a little, the point is made: Obama and McCain are fighting for the vote of 10% of uncommitted Americans. Is it possible that the Presidential Election plays out like the scenario depicted in Kevin Costner’s Swing Vote? Could the election hinge on one state? Then a particular county of that state? Then finally, when all votes are counted, we realize there is still a tie which can be broken because the vote of one citizen was not counted?

What People under the Lamppost are Saying These Days

Palin’s selection was an affront to women. Why would the Republicans think that they could buy the Hillary vote simply by hiring Palin as the Deputy Sheriff? She’s good-looking, though.

When is Obama going to lay out his plan. When is he going to tell me how he is going to take care of me, my family and especially my small business? I want to vote for Obama but I can’t right now. I could change my mind but it’s up to Obama to convince me. Here’s why: Obama has been preaching for 2 ½ years now that he is going to tax the rich and help the less fortunate. That‘s a big word: the less fortunate. Who makes up the less fortunate? Well, the very people I see him speaking in front of: fellow blacks, Hispanics, etc. What about small business-owning blacks, Hispanics, Asians, Caucasians, Persians, etc.? I don’t ask for handouts. I get up and work all day long. I pay my taxes. I can’t afford a house because the real estate prices in the state I live in are way too high. I’m frankly tired of the Democrats saying they will tax the rich and give it to the poor. They’ve been saying that since I was born which I think is why the Republicans have owned the White House for almost 60% of my lifetime. What’s wrong with being rich? I am in business to, yes, enjoy working for myself, but ultimately I would like to sell the business and reap the profits, however large. What I hear from Democrats is that it is ok to be rich, but not too rich. Frankly, I don’t care if McCain has 7 homes or 20 homes. That’s his business. Obama should know from Economics 101 that the reward should be proportionate to the risk. What I want from Obama is assurance that he can be creative and use his Harvard-educated mind to develop a plan that allows people to prosper while taking care of and encouraging the less fortunate. I belie e in helping the less fortunate. I believe in being socially responsible. I also believe in developing a prosperous business. Obama, how are you going to allow me to do that? For now, the vote goes to McCain but Obama, if you’re listening, I’m all ears.

Why are people so upset at the Palin selection? The complaints about Palin have been that she is a woman and, as such, McCain thinks he can get the Hillary women to cross the aisle. We haven’t heard much about her experience, in terms of complaints.

Agree or disagree with the Palin selection. That’s fine. But why be affronted because McCain is trying to woo your vote – if you’re a woman? Do people realize the Vice Presidential selection is all about politics? Remember Kennedy? He chose Lyndon Johnson from Texas. Kennedy hated Johnson. He would rather have eaten dinner with Nikita Krushchev than with Johnson. Kennedy needed the South and he needed Texas. There you have it. And it goes on. Obama chose Biden to try to neutralize the sentiment that he was too green, too inexperienced.

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