My Lamppost

Oh Where, Oh Where Will Her Delegates Go?

In Washington on Saturday, June 7, 2008, Hillary Clinton suspended her campaign and officially endorsed Barack Obama for President of the United States. (The campaign suspension allows her to keep her delegates and continue to receive donations to pay down her debt.) It was a complete endorsement. She didn’t hold anything back and urged her supporters to switch to Obama for the good of the Party and the country. Obama didn’t know just how complete an endorsement he would get and one guess is that he is happy and content at the way in which she went about it.

The problem is that many of her supporters see right through Clinton and know that she isn’t thrilled to be endorsing Obama and is still rather miffed at the way in which she (and her husband) were treated by the Democratic National Committee a couple of weeks ago when it decided to count but then halve primary delegate votes from Florida and Michigan. She was counting on those delegates to persuade more super delegates to vote her way and, at the very least, to create momentum for a showdown in Denver.

Although Barack Obama has clinched the nomination by amassing more than the needed 2,118 delegates, she still wields power and influence with her 1,919 delegates. What hasn’t been expected until recently, however, is the power her constituency holds over the election chances of Barack Obama.

So, how will Hillary Clinton’s constituency vote in the November Presidential General Election?

CNN polls report that about 25% of her supporters will not vote at all in November if Clinton is not on the Democratic Presidential ticket. About another 20% or so say they will vote, but not for the Democrats. Instead, they will cast their votes for John McCain, the Republican nominee for President. And McCain couldn’t be happier. He has already gone into action and begun speaking with her base of women, latinos and blue-collar voters with ridiculously political statements like “there is a genuine affection for her here at McCain HQ. During her speech there was no small amount of pleading with the TV: ‘Don’t do it, you can still win!’” and this beauty aimed right for the heart of the Obama campaign balloon: “Sen. Clinton has really grown on us over here in Crystal City over the past few months,” … [she is] an “impressive candidate” who “inspired a generation of women” but “fell victim to a vast left-wing conspiracy that resented her generally centrist foreign policy views.”

If you read CNN.com’s Rebecca Sinderbrand, she leads her story with: “While Sen. Hillary Clinton was endorsing Sen. Barack Obama, some of those weighing in on her campaign Web site were less willing to concede.” So, we went to her website and you can too - Blog.HillaryClinton.com - to read what supporters were writing on their way out the door:

• “I will donate for your web site if you separate your web site from Obama”
• “…many of us are, for now, UNDECIDED, on what we will do.”
• “I am a Obama supportor and hope and pray we can unite together to take back the White House.”
• “I too, along with you Hillary, will work my heart out for Obama.”
• “Thank you for your amazing speech, Hillary. I was moved and inspired by your sincerity. I thought I’d never be able to switch allegiance, but you made it easier by throwing your wholehearted support behind Obama. Once again, women will wait and a man will be in charge, but those ‘18,000,000 cracks’ in the ultimate glass ceiling will bring it crashing down some day soon. Thank you for taking a hammer to it for us Hillary. You - and we with you - have truly made history.”
• “I’m with Hillary. Let’s crack the VP ceiling.”
• “Together let’s work our hearts out for Senator Obama!”
• “I hope those who are crying out that they’d rather vote for McCain than Obama are reacting out of hurt and will come to their senses.”
• “I have not been so sure that I could vote Obama come November”…”Come November I will do what is right, for me, for her for the country..I’ll pull that lever for a Democrat.”
• “My vote in November will go to Barack Obama now.”
• “Hillary, we will always support you and be there for you! Please be Obama’s running-mate!”
• “Two people, one America. Hillary will work with Obama for America.”
• “I will listen to the issues and unite around Obama once my mind has completely absorbed all of the events recently.”
• “Wanting a Democrat in office, I will back Obama, as Hillary has asked.”
• It will take me a few days to get there, but I won’t vote for McCain! I will get there for Obama. If she can do it, how could we not.”

We went through about 75% of Clinton blog postings and didn’t find anything shattering to suggest that Clinton supporters were leaving the Democratic Party. It is true that Sinderbrand stated that “some…were less willing to concede” but she purposely led the article with it when 95% of comments support Clinton’s endorsement of Obama to one degree or another. The Sinderbrand article is creating a stir and one must wonder why? Perhaps CNN is trying to get Clinton on the Obama ticket, perhaps CNN is trying to undermine the Obama campaign. Who knows? Only CNN does.

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Going into the Montana and South Dakota primaries last night, the last night of primaries in this historic presidential primary season of 2008, Barack Obama needed 47 delegates to secure the Democratic nomination for President of the United States. It didn’t matter how they came - from pledged delegates or super delegates.

Obama won Montana, winning 56% of the vote and the 9 pledged delegates that come with it. He lost South Dakota but picked up 6 pledged delegates. The combined nightly pledged delegate totaled 15 which left him 32 delegates away from the prize. Then, the super delegates kicked and and pushed him over the top. Within hours of polls closing, 56 super delegates lent their support to Obama that clearly suggested that it’s time to bring the Democratic Primary season to a close and commence focus on the big prize: the contest with Republican presidential nominee John McCain for the Presidency of the United States.

As of today, June 4th, Obama’s delegate totals look like this: 1,765 pledged delegates in addition to 389 super delegates totaling 2,154 delegates. The amount of delegates Obama needed to secure the nomination was 2,118. If you recall, 2,025 delegates were needed to win the democratic nomination until the Michigan and Florida fiascos caused the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee to re-distribute delegate votes.

So, now that Obama is the unofficial Democratic nominee for President of the United States (it will be made official at the Democratic National Convention in Denver in late Summer, August 25-28, is Hillary Clinton the likely selection as Vice Presidential running mate?

Former President Jimmy Carter weighed in on the subject today of a proposed “unity ticket” and called it, in his own words, “the worst mistake that could be made”. His point against Clinton joining Obama’s ticket was that the vulnerabilities of and differences between each other’s platform would be exposed and leveraged against them. He argued that there are already 50% of Democratic voters that will not vote for Clinton and he may be right. Tuesday night, before the Montana and South Dakota polls closed, Clinton mentioned that she would consider the Vice Presidency if it were in the best interest of the Party in November’s general election. then, a little while later, refused to concede the nomination to Obama. Some feel that she is contemptuous of Obama and lacks faith in him as the Party’s leader. Other’s feel that she is the divisive wedge that could lose the Presidency for the Democrats. Stay tuned. McCain will take advantage of this.

Back to Jimmy Carter… Carter thinks many Democrats feel Obama is not white enough for them, is not old enough or even experienced enough to lead U.S. domestic and foreign policy. And the kicker: perhaps his last name sounds too Arab. Carter feels that the combined deficiencies of each candidate would be “the worst of both worlds”.

However, there are those that worry about Clinton loyalists that have pledged to defect to the Republican party after the inopportune re-distribution of votes from the Michigan and Florida primaries, a re-calculation that favored Obama. Carter feels that, strategically, there are better choices, one among them being former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn who served 24 years in the Senate and is now co-chairman of the Nuclear Threat Institute, a non-profit that tries to diminish worldwide dangers imposed by nuclear, biological and chemical weapons. A Georgian through and through, Nunn’s appointment would help Obama in conservative states that voted Republican in 2004. But, then again, the only states that voted Democrat in 2004 Presidential voting were Western, upper Midwest, and Northeast states.

How would a John McCain-Hillary Clinton Presidential ticket be received?

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Only Montana (16 pledged delegates) and South Dakota (15 pledged delegates) are left on the Democratic primary schedule, slated for Tuesday, June 3, 2008. According to My Lamppost, Barack Obama is 47 delegates away from clinching the Democratic nomination for President. Hillary Clinton is 203 votes shy and cannot clinch with the two remaining primaries since the total for both equals 31 pledged delegate. Of course, according to delegate rules, the delegates are really the ones to decide at the Denver convention.

It is noted by many journalists and newspapers that Obama has the edge in the Montana and South Dakota primaries and assuming he musters 50% of pledged delegates, he will walk away tomorrow with 16 total pledged delegates, leaving him 31 delegates shy of the finish line. News today came out of Washington that the remaining 17 super delegates from the Senate will pledge to Obama but they will wait until after the final primary day tomorrow to commit and to also give their fellow Senator Clinton time to gracefully leave the race.

Assuming Obama wins 16 pledged delegates tomorrow and then is handed 17 super delegate votes in a few days, his delegate total nears 33, leaving him just 14 delegates shy. At this point or before, Clinton should leave the race. If she doesn’t, look for the DNC powers-that-be to step in to mediate (or mandate, depending on Clinton’s view) a settlement. Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House, was quoted as saying that there will be resolution by the end of June (read: before her Summer vacation begins). Clinton surely believes she will fare better against McCain and has the demographic support in the Democratic party that Obama doesn’t. Would would-be Clinton voters really vote McCain if she isn’t hte nominee? We’ll see. Would Clinton accept the VP role if offered by Obama? Or will she take the battle all the way to the Denver convention? Out of pressure, the odds are that she won’t take this to Denver. it will be an interesting talk between Pelosi and Clinton if this goes another 30 days.

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On Saturday, May 31, 2008, the Democratic Rules and Bylaws convened to decide if to or how to distribute Michigan and Florida Democratic primary delegate counts.

If you recall, the Michigan and Florida Democratic primaries were held sooner than were planned and the DNC penalized both states deciding at the time to not count any of the totals. Therefore, at the time, neither Clinton nor Obama walked away with additional delegates as a result of those primaries.

However, at the time, both states held their own primaries and Clinton won both, 55% of the vote in Michigan equaling 69 delegates and 50% of the vote in Florida amassing 105 delegates. At the time, John Edwards was still in the running (he quit the day after the Florida primary, on Wednesday, January 30, 2008). In Michigan, 40% of the vote went to “uncommitted”.

The issues that the DNC Rules and Bylaws committee had before them were the following:

• Obama did not campaign in either state because the DNC issued its “delegates will not count” ruling before those primaries,
• No one knew how voters would vote had they been told that their primaries would count, and
• No one can predict where the 40% of “uncommitted” Michigan votes would have gone. Would they have gone for Obama or Edwards or would they have split? Would some have gone for Clinton?

Of course, Hillary Clinton is opposed to any ruling that does not grant her the delegate totals she amassed in those two primaries in January. After all, she is hundreds of delegates behind Obama and desperately needs all of the support she can muster. Obama isn’t sweating the details because he is in the drivers seat and was part of the negotiations in splitting delegates in half.

The Ruling

The Democratic Rules and Bylaws Committee yesterday on Saturday, May 31, 2008, to raucous jeers, announced that the Michigan and Florida delegates could attend the Democratic National Convention in Denver but that each delegate vote would count as a half vote, not a full one. Clinton is just not peeved at the Committee for halving votes but also for distributing more Michigan votes to Obama than she thought he deserved. Cleqarly, the assumption was made (see chart below) that Obama would have amassed most of the “uncommitted” votes.

You’d think that John McCain is smiling and laughing as the Democrats engage in sordid infighting but the feeling here is that all publicity is good publicity. Obama is not desperate and it surely appears as though he will gain the nomination. The Michigan and Florida delegate decision over shadowed Clinton’s win in Puerto Rico and it keeps McCain off the front pages. Incidentally, Obama asked supporters to stay away from Washington yesterday during the vote so as not to antagonize Clinton and her supporters. He will most assuredly need them in the Fall. However, many Clinton supporters interviewed yesterday threatened to switch party allegiances if the Committee maintained the “half-vote” decision.

MICHIGAN PRIMARY RESULTS

FLORIDA PRIMARY RESULTS

Commentary

It appears unfair to Hillary Clinton and advantageous to Barack Obama that the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee on May 31st decided to not only hand over all “uncommitted” Michigan votes to Obama but that he received 4 additiional delegates, as well. Since John Edwards was still in the race, it is quite reasonable to assume that Obama would not have amassed the full 40%. However, it is possible that either one would have eaten into Clinton’s 55% had they campaigned in Michigan as Clinton did. (Obama didn’t campaign in Florida either).

So, what’s fair? Honestly, what’s wrong with Michigan and Florida voting again? - this time on the same day, with a caveat: neither Obama nor Clinton is allowed to campaign in either state. Set up a final debate between the two of them and then let the voters decide. Clearly, the no-campaigning rule seems to benefit Clinton since she is out of money but every voter in America has seen and heard from these two enough to have an opinion. A debate would bring us current.

It is not fair to deprive citizens of the United States their right to vote. Each vote should be counted - even though the delegates can vote their own conscience at the convention but that’s another story. It doesn’t matter if 2 additional primaries are inconvenient or costs too much money. It’s the right thing to do. I know, I know, you’re saying that it’s a foregone conclusion that Obama will win. It appears as though he will win. It still, however, does not give us the right to deprive Americans of a voting voice. Do the right thing!

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Counting Democratic pledged and super delegates, Barack Obama still maintains a healthy lead going into the next primary elections in Indiana and North Carolina on May 6th. Hillary Clinton is still trailing Obama by 125 delegates, 150 if you just count pledged delegates. Does Clinton still have a chance of upending Obama? Can she surpass him? Can she convince the super delegates that she is the best choice and despite what the pledged delegate count says, that she is the candidate that should receive the super delegate endorsement? If she does, she will be the Democratic nominee. Obama has alot of work in front of him. it didn’t have to be like this, Barack.

What happened in the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary?
In the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, there were lots of voters who decided their vote at the last minute and among those last minute voters about 60% voted for Clinton. Clinton also received alot of blue collar type votes, lots of women votes and lots of older votes.

But the real question is, why, after months and months of getting to know Clinton and Obama, are there so many people deciding their vote at the last minute? Are people wanting to vote for Obama but still walking uneasy not knowing what’s behind the rhetoric? Did the last debate held on April 16th have anything to do with it? The debate was watched by more Americans (10 million) than any other debate we’ve had so far in this 2008 Presidential Primary season.

Obama is definitely getting rocked a bit by probing interview questions but I guess that comes with the turf when you’re the front-runner because the the only negative to standing on the front-runner throne is that we Americans like to bounce you off of it. Pretty large negative. Just ask Britney Spears. Clinton began her campaign stating emphatically that she was more than prepared to be the next Commander-in-Chief, citing experience in the Oval Office as First Lady and as Senator from New York. Obama can’t match her record as hard as he tries - one term as Illinois Senator - so has tried to rely on rhetoric - “CHANGE” - and endorsements (read: fundraising).

Many American voters will prop you up on good looks and rhetoric but, in the end, it really does boil down to issues and experience which may explain teh high number of last minute voters in Pennsylvania. When pressed by the media about the effect on revenues given an increase in the capital gains tax, Obama seemed ill-prepared to answer. (The question was based on that fact that government revenues actually increased when the capital gains tax was cut. Conversely, government revenues decreased when the capital gains rate was increased.)

We are entering the proverbial 4th quarter of the 2008 Democratic Primary season. It is one thing to build a lead, another to maintain it and quite another to preserve it when the momentum swings to your opponent. American voters are asking the tough questions (through the media and blogs) and this requires that a few layers of Obama’s “issue onion” be peeled back. What is underneath the “CHANGE” rhetoric? Does he understand economics, social policy, foreign policy. Is he poised enough? When TV viewers witness frustration, discontent and non-answers, they project that on to other issues, challenges and confrontations. Can Obama stand strong against other foreign leaders? Can he ably negotiate with Republicans if the Democrats do not gain a majority in the mid-term elections? Basically, does he really and truly “get it”?

Clinton, on the other hand, is somewhat ascerbic and not as good-looking as Obama. She lacks charisma and really does have a whiney voice. Does she have to continually yell into that microphone of hers? Does she think I can’t hear her? But, in the end, who do you trust in the White House? Clinton is right. She has been there. She has had on-the-job training and was given Presidential-type responsibilities while acting as First Lady. She is smart, like Obama, but seems better prepared to stand up to resistance, discontent and threats. She seems better prepared to lead.

The opinon of the Lamppost is this: Obama could have secured the Democratic nomination a while back but super delegates, and now regular voters, are wondering if he really is
better than Clinton and if he even has a chance in hell of beating McCain. So many super delegates are worried, in our opinion, that he will be swallowed whole by McCain. And, we
tend to think this is possible because “change” rhetoric will not fly in the general Presidential election debates. The issues will be debated. A grasp of economics will be required. So will a pragmatic and experienced view of foreign policy.

The super delegates are awaiting a few things before they really commit to either Democratic candidate: one, they want to see how the country continues to vote in the seven (7 Democratic primaries that remain, and two, they will take measure of each as a viable opponent to John McCain, the 2008 Republican nominee for President. The feeling is that if Clinton continues to trail Obama in pledged delegate totals yet continues to mount momentum with primary victories, the super delegates will not support Obama and swing the nomination to Clinton. In effect, the race is tied. Whichi candidate will reach down and grab that “something extra” to convince us of his or her strength, intelligence, quick wit and poise?

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Last week, in our post entitled Obama Sweeps 9 Primaries - Leads by Only 98 Delegates? we said that Hillary Clinton would have to win at least one of the large primaries on “Little Super Tuesday” in order to stay in the Democratic primary race.

Well, tonight Hillary Clinton regained her momentum and threw a pin into the momentum balloon that Barack Obama was riding. As of 9pm PST, Clinton has won Rhode Island and Ohio and is winning Texas with 58% of the precincts reporting. Earlier Obama won in Vermont.

So Who is Winning the Democratic Primary Race Now?

Even thought it’s early, let’s have some fun with the Democratic delegate counts adn assume that the vote percentages in each state as of 9pm PST hold true:

Updated Delegate Totals: Barack Obama would have 1,543 delegates and Hillary Clinton would have 1,473 delegates. Barack Obama would lead by 70 delegates but Clinton would have successfully stayed off Obama’s momentum, his message and a possible clinching Democratic nomination. Still, though, Clinton has alot of work to do to regain those 70 delegates and with apportioned delegates, it darned may be impossible unless she can whip off a winning streak similar to Obama’s the last month or convince the superdelegates to vote her way.

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Yeah, yeah, Barack Obama has swept the past 9 consecutive democratic primaries by my count, has grabbed the spotlight and has the edge in charisma. As a result, you’d think that he was ahead by a McCain-country mile.

Well, after his 9-state sweep, Obama is ahead by only 98 delegates with the March 4th democratic primary elections upcoming. (On March 4th, Democratic state primaries are held in Rhode Island, Vermont, Texas, and Ohio.) Because the Democratic primaries were not winner take all primaries, Hillary Clinton was apportioned delegates based on her percentage of votes, thus keeping the 2nd place finisher in the race. But, it is getting tight now.

What does Obama’s 98 delegate lead mean? Is he ahead by a McCain country-mile or is the Democratic race basically tied?

If you look at the number of state primaries remaining (14) as well as the number of delegates up for grabs (922), you’d think the race was about tied and that no matter the results of March 4th, Hillary Clinton would still live to fight another day.

But, on closer look, it appears Hillary Clinton has to win either Ohio or Texas to remain in the race.

Here’s why:
Given the past 9 primaries, Obama has won by an average of 64%. Let’s say he sweeps the March 4th primaries (TX, OH, VT, RI) with the same vote percentage and let’s say Clinton takes the remaining 36%. Obama would win 237 out of 370 pledged delegates available while Clinton would capture 133, leaving them with 1,609 and 1,407 delegates, respectively. The math says that Obama would be ahead by 202 delegates, not counting superdelegates. A lead of 202 delegates with momentum could prove insurmountable given that the state primaries that follow, even though they represent the remaining 720 delegates, really do not have many delegates to give separately, other than Pennsylvania and Indiana.

If Clinton loses Texas and Ohio, she would have to literally shut out Obama in Pennsylvania and Indiana to come back which in all likelihood won’t happen given Obama’s would-be momentum and that we’d be in the homestretch of the primary race.

Remaining Democratic State Primaries:

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