As many a previous presidential general election campaign has proved, running for President demands a different strategy than that of being President. Running for President allows nominees to spout traditional Party ideology and to deliver promises to an electorate that are either deceptive or naive (not understanding that the current economic climate will not allow for such promises). The reason Presidential nominees get away with this deception or naivete falls back on the electorate who can be as uninformed as the nominees themselves. What’s the percentage of the electorate that knows the differing responsibilities of the legislative branch, executive branch and the Federal Reserve Bank. If the electorate doesn’t know who sets interest rates (Fed) or tax policy (Congress and the President), then it is easy to understand how Presidents get elected on superficial rhetoric. In truth, a President must compromise the application of Party ideology in the face of changing real world economics and politics.

How Real World Economics in the United States Affects the Application of Presidential Ideology

The attitude toward the United States economy is negative, lacking confidence, and thus, dire. Stock market prices, which rise and fall on emotion as much as projected earnings, have been free falling for a month now. Asian and European markets have followed the Dow Jones lead. Key economic indicators support our negative attitude. The economy is operating at a budget deficit due to less tax revenues, increased domestic spending and increased spending on national security measures. Over spending has caused the United States to borrow money from U.S. citizens and institutions abroad which has increased our national indebtedness and thus our interest payment on that debt.

Truth be told, our economy’s debt ratio, which is defined as publicly held debt as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), is the key indicator of U.S. national indebtedness. The budget deficit is not. This is not to say that we can ignore a budget deficit but, before panic sets in, our debt must be analyzed as a percentage of our nations income, of GDP. Currently, our debt percentage is at its lowest point since World War II. Debt is good in many ways if it is used to fuel economic growth, i.e., new job creation which increases taxable revenue. So, the issue is and is not our debt ratio or our budget deficit but the increasing interest payments we must make on our debt. If we don’t manage or respect our debt, the ability to settle it will be jeopardized and so will all government programs in the future that will require increased monetary support due to aging Baby Boomers and Generation Xers, i.e., Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, even government jobs and public works projects, for example.

The way to effectively pay off debt is to realize increased cash flows by increasing taxes or stimulating economic growth (which increases tax revenues). But, with our economy at a standstill, is it wise to increase taxes on consumption and income? And what resources do we have left to stimulate the economy? We will most likely have a difficult time paying down interest on our national debt given the war in Iraq which commands billions of taxpayer dollars each month as well as the billions given to our banking system last month to keep the the credit system rolling. Exacerbating the cash flow crunch and interest payments, the Bush Administration issued billions to taxpayers at the beginning of 2008 with the hope of convincing consumers to spend. Not a bad policy, perhaps, but ill-timed misfortune in the face of it all. The housing market was tanking even back then (February, 2008). Some of Bush’s cash handout was spent but then some wasn’t as millions of homeowners had to guard every last penny to save for rising mortgage payments they realistically could no longer afford to pay. Now the Bush Administration is contemplating another round of capital payouts to the general public which, again, could put our economy further into debt and increase our interest payments. However, if the money is spent, will it have been worth it? Possibly. Congress, the President and The Fed are looking at anyway to jumpstart spending and confidence.

But then just last week, The Los Angeles Times advised against consumer’s spending and, instead, pleaded with them to save everything they had even it meant foregoing top colleges for their kids or even the latest XBOX game this holiday season. This, of course, creates an unfortunate domino effect: less spending leads to lower revenue streams for companies in the retail, real estate, and financial sectors, among others. And, in turn, their lower revenue streams domino across the economy: more McDonald’s burgers rather than healthier, more expensive foods bought in supermarkets, less get-togethers with friends (less pizza and beer), and hesitation in buying that new home.

Obama, McCain and the New Economy

As mentioned, economic growth can reduce the debt burden by affording us the extra capital to pay down the interest and subsequently the principal. If economic growth is not the answer, the President can reduce indebtedness (increase government revenues) by increasing taxes or cutting spending. But, if reducing the national debt is derivative of economic health, is it prudent to increase taxes, a move that could slow or hinder economic growth? Is it prudent to cut spending where thousands of Federal and State jobs can be lost? The unemployment rate is currently 6.1%, the highest it’s been since October, 2003. Increasing unemployment (it’s suppoed to climb to 7%+ in 2009) means more unemployment benefits and less taxable revenue for the government to spend. High unemployment rates do not trigger economic growth. Raising taxes will prevent businesses from hiring employees (and may force them to let some go), from investing in research, plants, etc. Business will stall while government takes those tax receipts and does what with them? Pays off debt, give them back in the form of a government-sponsored program that does not target your needs? Could you not have used that tax money for selfishly sounder purposes? Increasing tax rates will not trigger economic growth. If the government wants more revenue, reduce pork-barrel spending. Or better yet, invest it in your people, those that will return a profit on that investment. Be creative! Why steal from Peter, or in this case Warren Buffett, to pay Paul, in this case some homeowners that failed to use good judgment when securing mortgages beyond their means hoping and praying that their inflated home price would inflate even more?

Without some understanding of economics, it is impossible for voters to determine the ramifications of promises made by Obama or McCain. Obama promises tax increases to those individuals and businesses earning over $250,000 in gross income in order to provide tax relief to those not making as much. He goes on to promise a re-programming of the health insurance industry with the clear intention of reducing health and medical insurance premiums. Translation: tax increases, spending increases. McCain promises to lower taxes where he can and he promises credits for health care. Translation: tax relief, less tax revenues, less government spending, impact on government jobs? Obama believes in the power of government to help people. McCain believes in the power of people to help people. In 2008, we need McBama – people need help from people AND its government because the people can’t, on their own, repair an economy harmed by government oversight and public sector greed.

So, Who’s Better for the Economy – Obama or McCain?

If you’re making less than $250,000, you think Obama might be the choice because his policies and ideology seem to translate to more money for you and your family in terms of government assistance, lower taxes and lower health insurance costs. The only way this works is if you reinvest your increased cash flow into the economy and there’s a good chance of that if interest rates stay low. If you’re making over $250,000, McCain seems like the right choice because you get to keep more of your income and determine for yourself where your money goes, i.e., investments in labor, plant expansion, in other businesses, or into your own savings account as a bonus. If you’re a business owner, you might feel cheated because you’ve been promised that you can keep your riches if you earn it and work hard for it – The American Dream, remember? You’re tired of being the bad guy because you have money which the government now wants to better the lives of those that never took the risks that you did. You wonder why tax and spend proponenets don’t realize that you are the one that employs the middle class and without you they would be in more severe trouble?

The choice for President must be made in accordance with the current economic climate, here and abroad. It must be made considering that we are now saddled with a costly war in Iraq, rising unemployment rates, home foreclosures, failing banks, high gas prices and a budget deficit nearing $1 trillion. But, it probably won’t. Voters vote with their wallets, not their neighbor’s wallets. It’s what got Reagan elected.

Nevertheless, heed this warning: the Obama and McCain you think you know will not be the Obama and McCain that run the White House. What you vote for on November 4th is not what you’ll get on January 20th, 2009. Economy indicators will make sure of that.

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It’s been a few weeks since the Democratic and Republican National Conventions have wrapped up. Usually, one party will enjoy a pretty nice spike in approval rating right after their Convention has ended. This year, however, it just didn’t happen. Both parties experienced approval ratings far less than 10%. In the weeks since the Convention ended, McCain had a slight edge in the National polls but Obama has edged ahead the past couple of days and might hold that lead, at least in the short-term, as McCain suspends his campaign to go back to Washington to try to help negotiate a better Bailout Bill.

Clinton last night on Larry King live mentioned that each party has about a 45% voting base. Don’t know if he’s right but even if he’s off a little, the point is made: Obama and McCain are fighting for the vote of 10% of uncommitted Americans. Is it possible that the Presidential Election plays out like the scenario depicted in Kevin Costner’s Swing Vote? Could the election hinge on one state? Then a particular county of that state? Then finally, when all votes are counted, we realize there is still a tie which can be broken because the vote of one citizen was not counted?

What People under the Lamppost are Saying These Days

Palin’s selection was an affront to women. Why would the Republicans think that they could buy the Hillary vote simply by hiring Palin as the Deputy Sheriff? She’s good-looking, though.

When is Obama going to lay out his plan. When is he going to tell me how he is going to take care of me, my family and especially my small business? I want to vote for Obama but I can’t right now. I could change my mind but it’s up to Obama to convince me. Here’s why: Obama has been preaching for 2 ½ years now that he is going to tax the rich and help the less fortunate. That‘s a big word: the less fortunate. Who makes up the less fortunate? Well, the very people I see him speaking in front of: fellow blacks, Hispanics, etc. What about small business-owning blacks, Hispanics, Asians, Caucasians, Persians, etc.? I don’t ask for handouts. I get up and work all day long. I pay my taxes. I can’t afford a house because the real estate prices in the state I live in are way too high. I’m frankly tired of the Democrats saying they will tax the rich and give it to the poor. They’ve been saying that since I was born which I think is why the Republicans have owned the White House for almost 60% of my lifetime. What’s wrong with being rich? I am in business to, yes, enjoy working for myself, but ultimately I would like to sell the business and reap the profits, however large. What I hear from Democrats is that it is ok to be rich, but not too rich. Frankly, I don’t care if McCain has 7 homes or 20 homes. That’s his business. Obama should know from Economics 101 that the reward should be proportionate to the risk. What I want from Obama is assurance that he can be creative and use his Harvard-educated mind to develop a plan that allows people to prosper while taking care of and encouraging the less fortunate. I belie e in helping the less fortunate. I believe in being socially responsible. I also believe in developing a prosperous business. Obama, how are you going to allow me to do that? For now, the vote goes to McCain but Obama, if you’re listening, I’m all ears.

Why are people so upset at the Palin selection? The complaints about Palin have been that she is a woman and, as such, McCain thinks he can get the Hillary women to cross the aisle. We haven’t heard much about her experience, in terms of complaints.

Agree or disagree with the Palin selection. That’s fine. But why be affronted because McCain is trying to woo your vote – if you’re a woman? Do people realize the Vice Presidential selection is all about politics? Remember Kennedy? He chose Lyndon Johnson from Texas. Kennedy hated Johnson. He would rather have eaten dinner with Nikita Krushchev than with Johnson. Kennedy needed the South and he needed Texas. There you have it. And it goes on. Obama chose Biden to try to neutralize the sentiment that he was too green, too inexperienced.

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FLORIDA – January 29, 2008

Last night in Florida, Hillary Clinton’s campaign of middle-class relief and insurance reform clearly outperformed Barack Obama’s call for change in Florida, with Clinton beating Obama
50% to 33%. The Democratic primary vote is thought to have little impact on total delegates because the Democratic party’s national leadership said it would not allow Florida’s delegates to participate in the national convention. Why? Because Florida moved its state primary up ahead of Super Tuesday voting. Florida countered that it wanted its votes to be relevant since half of the country votes on Super Tuesday and a Presidential party nominee emerges at the end of the day. Primaries extend all the way through to June 3, 2008 (Montana-Dem, New Mexico-Rep, South Dakota). So, does the Clinton win and Obama loss matter? It depends of course with whom you speak. My Lamppost thinks it matters and agrees with Clinton. The Florida win gives CLinton momentum heading into Super Tuesday, it gives her relevance, a voice and an ability to raise more money for Super Tuesday campaigning. Obama, of course, will say, it doesn’t matter because no delegates were awarded. Word on CNN last night was that Democrats, especially Clinton, will fight hard to have Florida delegates seated at the nominazting convention in Denver, August 25-28.

Demographic Keys to Victory

Clinton outpolled Obama and Edwards on issues relating to the economy, health care and the war in Iraq. Demographic analysis shows that women, seniors, Latino voters and men (by a narrow margin) supported Clinton more so than her rivals. Obama had a step up on Clinton with voters under the age of 30 years but that demographic comprises only 10% of the voting total. Florida is mostly a seniors state (many from the Northeast) which is why Rudy Guiliani campaigned so heavily here. About 23% of voters said that experience was a determinant and Clinton won that round also. Obama had the support of blacks and probably will carry that support into Super Tuesday.

On the Republican side, McCain stunned Romney in a closed primary (only Republicans are allowed to vote for Republicans – no crossover voting is allowed) which is quite significant given the acrimonious history McCain has had with the party. Romney believed he had the economy vote given his long tenure as a successful businessman in Massachusetts. He was wrong and so were many of the pundits. McCain won the economy vote. McCain also won on national security (given his stellar military career and Florida ties). McCain also won amongst moderates and Hispanics but the one variable that seemed to put him over the top was the endorsement by Florida Governor Charlie Crist, a very popular governor. In an exit poll, almost half of the voters cited Crist’s endorsement as important in their decision-making and half of those voted for McCain. The true conservative vote did sway in Romney’s favor but only by a 10% margin, not enough to turn the overral totals in his favor.

Which Presidential Candidates Have the Edge Going Into Super Tuesday?

It appears that McCain and Clinton are on their way to gaining the official nomination of their respective parties as long as the trends hold true: McCain commanding the economy vote and Clinton winning big amongst women and holding on the experience vote. Romney’s focus on his business experience is not working. In years past, voters – although encouraged by candidates supporting change in a time of political, fiscal and economic turmoil – want their President to still be experienced enough in Washington politics to get things done. Although Romney was Governor of Massachusetts, his focus remains on his business leasdership. Moreover, McCain is a more of a known commodity. If McCain can address some semblance of a conservative platform and unite the parties base, he should have no problems gaining the Republican nomination. Clinton is competing against a Senator (Obama) that has limited political experience and it seems that experience will always beat high profile endorsements (Oprah, Caroline and Ted Kennedy endorsed Obama). Moreover, Obama’s heavy support within the black community will be more representative of Florida’s outcome. Although he controlled the black vote, blacks comprised only 10% of the overall electorate. Similarly, the only southern states voting on Super Tuesday are Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas and Tennessee. There are 17 other states, all mostly located in the Midwest and West involved in Super Tuesday voting. Here’s the wild card: Former President Bill Clinton. He apparently feels or has been advised that a 2-for-1 Presidential ticket (Bill/Hillary) is appealing to voters. If you didn’t know any differently and have been watching TV these past few weeks, you’d swear that Bill and Hillary are running mates. At times, its hard to distinguish Hillary’s voice in his. Could this hurt Hillary? Possibly. However, many voters doubting President Bush’s maturity level and experience had their fears assuaged because of his lineage (former President George H.W. Bush is his father obviously) and political ties (choice of Dick Cheney, a longtime politico in many Administrations). I believe the thinking is the same here. Bill Clinton enjoys a solid approval rating and may judge Hillary on Bill’s record. If so, the gamble may work. But, it is our belief that Hillary’s voice still needs to eclipse that of her husband’s to beat the Republican Presidential nominee.

The Democratic and Republican fields will narrow today with Guiliani and Edwards leaving the race. Guiliani is reportedly going to retire from the presidential race and give his support to McCain. It is believed that Guiliani will also campaign for McCain, a good friend. On the Democratic side, it is believed that John Edwards will also leave the presidential race, as soon as today. So, what happens to all of the delegates amassed by presidential hopefuls who retire from the race prematurely?

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Why did Rudy Giuliani basically forego all prior Republican primary elections thus far this year and place all of his eggs in the Florida primary election basket?

First, he never got on track after his abysmal showings in the Iowa Caucus (last place with 3% of the vote), Wyoming (0%), and then the New Hampshire Primary (4th place with 9% of the vote and in a virtual tie with Ron Paul). Michigan was not contested by Giuliani because it was Mitt Romney’s birth state.

Second, Giuliani is attacking Florida with gusto because Florida is home to retirees and refugees from the northeast (Giuliani is the former Mayor of New York City), many of which are the 3 million voters from that region aged 65 or older.

The Florida Republican primary, scheduled for Tuesday, January 29th, awards a winner-take-all 57 delegates to the winner.

Florida is thus far in this early primary election season the most diverse demographic state of which Hispanics represent 20% of the population and Blacks 16%. Florida is suffering in the pocketbook also. It was hit as hard as California in the housing market slump – the condo glut, mortgage fraud, high foreclosure rates and increased insurance premiums – so change is on the minds of people.

So, who will Republican voters choose? The social conservatives and religious right may opt for Huckabee; military veterans – no matter from where they once hailed – may choose McCain. Giuliani is riding the 9/11 catastrophe it seems, being backed by Pat Robertson – often at odds with Giuliani over social issues – because of his anti-terrorist stance. Are voters tired of 9/11? Will voters associate Giuliani with President Bush who is experiencing the lowest approval rating of any recent United States President?

In the latest CNN poll, McCain is leading Giuliani 26% to 22%. Huckabee and Romney follow with 17% and 16%, respectively.

When Is The Florida Democratic Primary Election?

When is the Florida Democratic Primary election, you ask? Well, there isn’t one. This year, the Democrats have punished Florida for going against Democratic party rules and moving the primary up to January 29th. Florida moved it up so it would be a relevant voice in determining the next President of the United States. Party officials there believe that primaries scheduled after Super Tuesday are irrelevant because nominees for each party are typically decided and/or cemented on that day. For what it’s worth, Clinton holds a commanding lead over Obama in Florida, with the New York Senator leading the Illinois Senator 50% to 28%. Edwards, the former North Carolina Senator, is a distant 3rd at 13%.

There are 25 total primaries on Super Tuesday of which there are 23 Republican primaries and 24 Democratic primaries.

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McCain Wins South Carolina

Florida Next – RCP Poll Shows McCain Edging Giuliani

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