My Lamppost

Oh Where, Oh Where Will Her Delegates Go?

In Washington on Saturday, June 7, 2008, Hillary Clinton suspended her campaign and officially endorsed Barack Obama for President of the United States. (The campaign suspension allows her to keep her delegates and continue to receive donations to pay down her debt.) It was a complete endorsement. She didn’t hold anything back and urged her supporters to switch to Obama for the good of the Party and the country. Obama didn’t know just how complete an endorsement he would get and one guess is that he is happy and content at the way in which she went about it.

The problem is that many of her supporters see right through Clinton and know that she isn’t thrilled to be endorsing Obama and is still rather miffed at the way in which she (and her husband) were treated by the Democratic National Committee a couple of weeks ago when it decided to count but then halve primary delegate votes from Florida and Michigan. She was counting on those delegates to persuade more super delegates to vote her way and, at the very least, to create momentum for a showdown in Denver.

Although Barack Obama has clinched the nomination by amassing more than the needed 2,118 delegates, she still wields power and influence with her 1,919 delegates. What hasn’t been expected until recently, however, is the power her constituency holds over the election chances of Barack Obama.

So, how will Hillary Clinton’s constituency vote in the November Presidential General Election?

CNN polls report that about 25% of her supporters will not vote at all in November if Clinton is not on the Democratic Presidential ticket. About another 20% or so say they will vote, but not for the Democrats. Instead, they will cast their votes for John McCain, the Republican nominee for President. And McCain couldn’t be happier. He has already gone into action and begun speaking with her base of women, latinos and blue-collar voters with ridiculously political statements like “there is a genuine affection for her here at McCain HQ. During her speech there was no small amount of pleading with the TV: ‘Don’t do it, you can still win!’” and this beauty aimed right for the heart of the Obama campaign balloon: “Sen. Clinton has really grown on us over here in Crystal City over the past few months,” … [she is] an “impressive candidate” who “inspired a generation of women” but “fell victim to a vast left-wing conspiracy that resented her generally centrist foreign policy views.”

If you read CNN.com’s Rebecca Sinderbrand, she leads her story with: “While Sen. Hillary Clinton was endorsing Sen. Barack Obama, some of those weighing in on her campaign Web site were less willing to concede.” So, we went to her website and you can too - Blog.HillaryClinton.com - to read what supporters were writing on their way out the door:

• “I will donate for your web site if you separate your web site from Obama”
• “…many of us are, for now, UNDECIDED, on what we will do.”
• “I am a Obama supportor and hope and pray we can unite together to take back the White House.”
• “I too, along with you Hillary, will work my heart out for Obama.”
• “Thank you for your amazing speech, Hillary. I was moved and inspired by your sincerity. I thought I’d never be able to switch allegiance, but you made it easier by throwing your wholehearted support behind Obama. Once again, women will wait and a man will be in charge, but those ‘18,000,000 cracks’ in the ultimate glass ceiling will bring it crashing down some day soon. Thank you for taking a hammer to it for us Hillary. You - and we with you - have truly made history.”
• “I’m with Hillary. Let’s crack the VP ceiling.”
• “Together let’s work our hearts out for Senator Obama!”
• “I hope those who are crying out that they’d rather vote for McCain than Obama are reacting out of hurt and will come to their senses.”
• “I have not been so sure that I could vote Obama come November”…”Come November I will do what is right, for me, for her for the country..I’ll pull that lever for a Democrat.”
• “My vote in November will go to Barack Obama now.”
• “Hillary, we will always support you and be there for you! Please be Obama’s running-mate!”
• “Two people, one America. Hillary will work with Obama for America.”
• “I will listen to the issues and unite around Obama once my mind has completely absorbed all of the events recently.”
• “Wanting a Democrat in office, I will back Obama, as Hillary has asked.”
• It will take me a few days to get there, but I won’t vote for McCain! I will get there for Obama. If she can do it, how could we not.”

We went through about 75% of Clinton blog postings and didn’t find anything shattering to suggest that Clinton supporters were leaving the Democratic Party. It is true that Sinderbrand stated that “some…were less willing to concede” but she purposely led the article with it when 95% of comments support Clinton’s endorsement of Obama to one degree or another. The Sinderbrand article is creating a stir and one must wonder why? Perhaps CNN is trying to get Clinton on the Obama ticket, perhaps CNN is trying to undermine the Obama campaign. Who knows? Only CNN does.

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Only Montana (16 pledged delegates) and South Dakota (15 pledged delegates) are left on the Democratic primary schedule, slated for Tuesday, June 3, 2008. According to My Lamppost, Barack Obama is 47 delegates away from clinching the Democratic nomination for President. Hillary Clinton is 203 votes shy and cannot clinch with the two remaining primaries since the total for both equals 31 pledged delegate. Of course, according to delegate rules, the delegates are really the ones to decide at the Denver convention.

It is noted by many journalists and newspapers that Obama has the edge in the Montana and South Dakota primaries and assuming he musters 50% of pledged delegates, he will walk away tomorrow with 16 total pledged delegates, leaving him 31 delegates shy of the finish line. News today came out of Washington that the remaining 17 super delegates from the Senate will pledge to Obama but they will wait until after the final primary day tomorrow to commit and to also give their fellow Senator Clinton time to gracefully leave the race.

Assuming Obama wins 16 pledged delegates tomorrow and then is handed 17 super delegate votes in a few days, his delegate total nears 33, leaving him just 14 delegates shy. At this point or before, Clinton should leave the race. If she doesn’t, look for the DNC powers-that-be to step in to mediate (or mandate, depending on Clinton’s view) a settlement. Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House, was quoted as saying that there will be resolution by the end of June (read: before her Summer vacation begins). Clinton surely believes she will fare better against McCain and has the demographic support in the Democratic party that Obama doesn’t. Would would-be Clinton voters really vote McCain if she isn’t hte nominee? We’ll see. Would Clinton accept the VP role if offered by Obama? Or will she take the battle all the way to the Denver convention? Out of pressure, the odds are that she won’t take this to Denver. it will be an interesting talk between Pelosi and Clinton if this goes another 30 days.

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On Saturday, May 31, 2008, the Democratic Rules and Bylaws convened to decide if to or how to distribute Michigan and Florida Democratic primary delegate counts.

If you recall, the Michigan and Florida Democratic primaries were held sooner than were planned and the DNC penalized both states deciding at the time to not count any of the totals. Therefore, at the time, neither Clinton nor Obama walked away with additional delegates as a result of those primaries.

However, at the time, both states held their own primaries and Clinton won both, 55% of the vote in Michigan equaling 69 delegates and 50% of the vote in Florida amassing 105 delegates. At the time, John Edwards was still in the running (he quit the day after the Florida primary, on Wednesday, January 30, 2008). In Michigan, 40% of the vote went to “uncommitted”.

The issues that the DNC Rules and Bylaws committee had before them were the following:

• Obama did not campaign in either state because the DNC issued its “delegates will not count” ruling before those primaries,
• No one knew how voters would vote had they been told that their primaries would count, and
• No one can predict where the 40% of “uncommitted” Michigan votes would have gone. Would they have gone for Obama or Edwards or would they have split? Would some have gone for Clinton?

Of course, Hillary Clinton is opposed to any ruling that does not grant her the delegate totals she amassed in those two primaries in January. After all, she is hundreds of delegates behind Obama and desperately needs all of the support she can muster. Obama isn’t sweating the details because he is in the drivers seat and was part of the negotiations in splitting delegates in half.

The Ruling

The Democratic Rules and Bylaws Committee yesterday on Saturday, May 31, 2008, to raucous jeers, announced that the Michigan and Florida delegates could attend the Democratic National Convention in Denver but that each delegate vote would count as a half vote, not a full one. Clinton is just not peeved at the Committee for halving votes but also for distributing more Michigan votes to Obama than she thought he deserved. Cleqarly, the assumption was made (see chart below) that Obama would have amassed most of the “uncommitted” votes.

You’d think that John McCain is smiling and laughing as the Democrats engage in sordid infighting but the feeling here is that all publicity is good publicity. Obama is not desperate and it surely appears as though he will gain the nomination. The Michigan and Florida delegate decision over shadowed Clinton’s win in Puerto Rico and it keeps McCain off the front pages. Incidentally, Obama asked supporters to stay away from Washington yesterday during the vote so as not to antagonize Clinton and her supporters. He will most assuredly need them in the Fall. However, many Clinton supporters interviewed yesterday threatened to switch party allegiances if the Committee maintained the “half-vote” decision.

MICHIGAN PRIMARY RESULTS

FLORIDA PRIMARY RESULTS

Commentary

It appears unfair to Hillary Clinton and advantageous to Barack Obama that the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee on May 31st decided to not only hand over all “uncommitted” Michigan votes to Obama but that he received 4 additiional delegates, as well. Since John Edwards was still in the race, it is quite reasonable to assume that Obama would not have amassed the full 40%. However, it is possible that either one would have eaten into Clinton’s 55% had they campaigned in Michigan as Clinton did. (Obama didn’t campaign in Florida either).

So, what’s fair? Honestly, what’s wrong with Michigan and Florida voting again? - this time on the same day, with a caveat: neither Obama nor Clinton is allowed to campaign in either state. Set up a final debate between the two of them and then let the voters decide. Clearly, the no-campaigning rule seems to benefit Clinton since she is out of money but every voter in America has seen and heard from these two enough to have an opinion. A debate would bring us current.

It is not fair to deprive citizens of the United States their right to vote. Each vote should be counted - even though the delegates can vote their own conscience at the convention but that’s another story. It doesn’t matter if 2 additional primaries are inconvenient or costs too much money. It’s the right thing to do. I know, I know, you’re saying that it’s a foregone conclusion that Obama will win. It appears as though he will win. It still, however, does not give us the right to deprive Americans of a voting voice. Do the right thing!

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Counting Democratic pledged and super delegates, Barack Obama still maintains a healthy lead going into the next primary elections in Indiana and North Carolina on May 6th. Hillary Clinton is still trailing Obama by 125 delegates, 150 if you just count pledged delegates. Does Clinton still have a chance of upending Obama? Can she surpass him? Can she convince the super delegates that she is the best choice and despite what the pledged delegate count says, that she is the candidate that should receive the super delegate endorsement? If she does, she will be the Democratic nominee. Obama has alot of work in front of him. it didn’t have to be like this, Barack.

What happened in the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary?
In the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, there were lots of voters who decided their vote at the last minute and among those last minute voters about 60% voted for Clinton. Clinton also received alot of blue collar type votes, lots of women votes and lots of older votes.

But the real question is, why, after months and months of getting to know Clinton and Obama, are there so many people deciding their vote at the last minute? Are people wanting to vote for Obama but still walking uneasy not knowing what’s behind the rhetoric? Did the last debate held on April 16th have anything to do with it? The debate was watched by more Americans (10 million) than any other debate we’ve had so far in this 2008 Presidential Primary season.

Obama is definitely getting rocked a bit by probing interview questions but I guess that comes with the turf when you’re the front-runner because the the only negative to standing on the front-runner throne is that we Americans like to bounce you off of it. Pretty large negative. Just ask Britney Spears. Clinton began her campaign stating emphatically that she was more than prepared to be the next Commander-in-Chief, citing experience in the Oval Office as First Lady and as Senator from New York. Obama can’t match her record as hard as he tries - one term as Illinois Senator - so has tried to rely on rhetoric - “CHANGE” - and endorsements (read: fundraising).

Many American voters will prop you up on good looks and rhetoric but, in the end, it really does boil down to issues and experience which may explain teh high number of last minute voters in Pennsylvania. When pressed by the media about the effect on revenues given an increase in the capital gains tax, Obama seemed ill-prepared to answer. (The question was based on that fact that government revenues actually increased when the capital gains tax was cut. Conversely, government revenues decreased when the capital gains rate was increased.)

We are entering the proverbial 4th quarter of the 2008 Democratic Primary season. It is one thing to build a lead, another to maintain it and quite another to preserve it when the momentum swings to your opponent. American voters are asking the tough questions (through the media and blogs) and this requires that a few layers of Obama’s “issue onion” be peeled back. What is underneath the “CHANGE” rhetoric? Does he understand economics, social policy, foreign policy. Is he poised enough? When TV viewers witness frustration, discontent and non-answers, they project that on to other issues, challenges and confrontations. Can Obama stand strong against other foreign leaders? Can he ably negotiate with Republicans if the Democrats do not gain a majority in the mid-term elections? Basically, does he really and truly “get it”?

Clinton, on the other hand, is somewhat ascerbic and not as good-looking as Obama. She lacks charisma and really does have a whiney voice. Does she have to continually yell into that microphone of hers? Does she think I can’t hear her? But, in the end, who do you trust in the White House? Clinton is right. She has been there. She has had on-the-job training and was given Presidential-type responsibilities while acting as First Lady. She is smart, like Obama, but seems better prepared to stand up to resistance, discontent and threats. She seems better prepared to lead.

The opinon of the Lamppost is this: Obama could have secured the Democratic nomination a while back but super delegates, and now regular voters, are wondering if he really is
better than Clinton and if he even has a chance in hell of beating McCain. So many super delegates are worried, in our opinion, that he will be swallowed whole by McCain. And, we
tend to think this is possible because “change” rhetoric will not fly in the general Presidential election debates. The issues will be debated. A grasp of economics will be required. So will a pragmatic and experienced view of foreign policy.

The super delegates are awaiting a few things before they really commit to either Democratic candidate: one, they want to see how the country continues to vote in the seven (7 Democratic primaries that remain, and two, they will take measure of each as a viable opponent to John McCain, the 2008 Republican nominee for President. The feeling is that if Clinton continues to trail Obama in pledged delegate totals yet continues to mount momentum with primary victories, the super delegates will not support Obama and swing the nomination to Clinton. In effect, the race is tied. Whichi candidate will reach down and grab that “something extra” to convince us of his or her strength, intelligence, quick wit and poise?

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Last week, in our post entitled Obama Sweeps 9 Primaries - Leads by Only 98 Delegates? we said that Hillary Clinton would have to win at least one of the large primaries on “Little Super Tuesday” in order to stay in the Democratic primary race.

Well, tonight Hillary Clinton regained her momentum and threw a pin into the momentum balloon that Barack Obama was riding. As of 9pm PST, Clinton has won Rhode Island and Ohio and is winning Texas with 58% of the precincts reporting. Earlier Obama won in Vermont.

So Who is Winning the Democratic Primary Race Now?

Even thought it’s early, let’s have some fun with the Democratic delegate counts adn assume that the vote percentages in each state as of 9pm PST hold true:

Updated Delegate Totals: Barack Obama would have 1,543 delegates and Hillary Clinton would have 1,473 delegates. Barack Obama would lead by 70 delegates but Clinton would have successfully stayed off Obama’s momentum, his message and a possible clinching Democratic nomination. Still, though, Clinton has alot of work to do to regain those 70 delegates and with apportioned delegates, it darned may be impossible unless she can whip off a winning streak similar to Obama’s the last month or convince the superdelegates to vote her way.

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FLORIDA - January 29, 2008

Last night in Florida, Hillary Clinton’s campaign of middle-class relief and insurance reform clearly outperformed Barack Obama’s call for change in Florida, with Clinton beating Obama
50% to 33%. The Democratic primary vote is thought to have little impact on total delegates because the Democratic party’s national leadership said it would not allow Florida’s delegates to participate in the national convention. Why? Because Florida moved its state primary up ahead of Super Tuesday voting. Florida countered that it wanted its votes to be relevant since half of the country votes on Super Tuesday and a Presidential party nominee emerges at the end of the day. Primaries extend all the way through to June 3, 2008 (Montana-Dem, New Mexico-Rep, South Dakota). So, does the Clinton win and Obama loss matter? It depends of course with whom you speak. My Lamppost thinks it matters and agrees with Clinton. The Florida win gives CLinton momentum heading into Super Tuesday, it gives her relevance, a voice and an ability to raise more money for Super Tuesday campaigning. Obama, of course, will say, it doesn’t matter because no delegates were awarded. Word on CNN last night was that Democrats, especially Clinton, will fight hard to have Florida delegates seated at the nominazting convention in Denver, August 25-28.

Demographic Keys to Victory

Clinton outpolled Obama and Edwards on issues relating to the economy, health care and the war in Iraq. Demographic analysis shows that women, seniors, Latino voters and men (by a narrow margin) supported Clinton more so than her rivals. Obama had a step up on Clinton with voters under the age of 30 years but that demographic comprises only 10% of the voting total. Florida is mostly a seniors state (many from the Northeast) which is why Rudy Guiliani campaigned so heavily here. About 23% of voters said that experience was a determinant and Clinton won that round also. Obama had the support of blacks and probably will carry that support into Super Tuesday.

On the Republican side, McCain stunned Romney in a closed primary (only Republicans are allowed to vote for Republicans - no crossover voting is allowed) which is quite significant given the acrimonious history McCain has had with the party. Romney believed he had the economy vote given his long tenure as a successful businessman in Massachusetts. He was wrong and so were many of the pundits. McCain won the economy vote. McCain also won on national security (given his stellar military career and Florida ties). McCain also won amongst moderates and Hispanics but the one variable that seemed to put him over the top was the endorsement by Florida Governor Charlie Crist, a very popular governor. In an exit poll, almost half of the voters cited Crist’s endorsement as important in their decision-making and half of those voted for McCain. The true conservative vote did sway in Romney’s favor but only by a 10% margin, not enough to turn the overral totals in his favor.

Which Presidential Candidates Have the Edge Going Into Super Tuesday?

It appears that McCain and Clinton are on their way to gaining the official nomination of their respective parties as long as the trends hold true: McCain commanding the economy vote and Clinton winning big amongst women and holding on the experience vote. Romney’s focus on his business experience is not working. In years past, voters - although encouraged by candidates supporting change in a time of political, fiscal and economic turmoil - want their President to still be experienced enough in Washington politics to get things done. Although Romney was Governor of Massachusetts, his focus remains on his business leasdership. Moreover, McCain is a more of a known commodity. If McCain can address some semblance of a conservative platform and unite the parties base, he should have no problems gaining the Republican nomination. Clinton is competing against a Senator (Obama) that has limited political experience and it seems that experience will always beat high profile endorsements (Oprah, Caroline and Ted Kennedy endorsed Obama). Moreover, Obama’s heavy support within the black community will be more representative of Florida’s outcome. Although he controlled the black vote, blacks comprised only 10% of the overall electorate. Similarly, the only southern states voting on Super Tuesday are Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas and Tennessee. There are 17 other states, all mostly located in the Midwest and West involved in Super Tuesday voting. Here’s the wild card: Former President Bill Clinton. He apparently feels or has been advised that a 2-for-1 Presidential ticket (Bill/Hillary) is appealing to voters. If you didn’t know any differently and have been watching TV these past few weeks, you’d swear that Bill and Hillary are running mates. At times, its hard to distinguish Hillary’s voice in his. Could this hurt Hillary? Possibly. However, many voters doubting President Bush’s maturity level and experience had their fears assuaged because of his lineage (former President George H.W. Bush is his father obviously) and political ties (choice of Dick Cheney, a longtime politico in many Administrations). I believe the thinking is the same here. Bill Clinton enjoys a solid approval rating and may judge Hillary on Bill’s record. If so, the gamble may work. But, it is our belief that Hillary’s voice still needs to eclipse that of her husband’s to beat the Republican Presidential nominee.

The Democratic and Republican fields will narrow today with Guiliani and Edwards leaving the race. Guiliani is reportedly going to retire from the presidential race and give his support to McCain. It is believed that Guiliani will also campaign for McCain, a good friend. On the Democratic side, it is believed that John Edwards will also leave the presidential race, as soon as today. So, what happens to all of the delegates amassed by presidential hopefuls who retire from the race prematurely?

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