My Lamppost

Delegate totals are current as of the Puerto Rico primary held on June 1, 2008. The Republican nominee needs 1,191 delegates to be nominated and John McCain has already amassed that total. The Democratic nominee ONCE required 2,025 delegates to be nominated but that total changed after Michigan and Florida Democratic primary totals were re-distributed on Saturday, May 31, 2008. The Democratic nominee NOW NEEDS 93 additional delegates bringing the total to be nominated to 2,118 delegates.

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Only Montana (16 pledged delegates) and South Dakota (15 pledged delegates) are left on the Democratic primary schedule, slated for Tuesday, June 3, 2008. According to My Lamppost, Barack Obama is 47 delegates away from clinching the Democratic nomination for President. Hillary Clinton is 203 votes shy and cannot clinch with the two remaining primaries since the total for both equals 31 pledged delegate. Of course, according to delegate rules, the delegates are really the ones to decide at the Denver convention.

It is noted by many journalists and newspapers that Obama has the edge in the Montana and South Dakota primaries and assuming he musters 50% of pledged delegates, he will walk away tomorrow with 16 total pledged delegates, leaving him 31 delegates shy of the finish line. News today came out of Washington that the remaining 17 super delegates from the Senate will pledge to Obama but they will wait until after the final primary day tomorrow to commit and to also give their fellow Senator Clinton time to gracefully leave the race.

Assuming Obama wins 16 pledged delegates tomorrow and then is handed 17 super delegate votes in a few days, his delegate total nears 33, leaving him just 14 delegates shy. At this point or before, Clinton should leave the race. If she doesn’t, look for the DNC powers-that-be to step in to mediate (or mandate, depending on Clinton’s view) a settlement. Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House, was quoted as saying that there will be resolution by the end of June (read: before her Summer vacation begins). Clinton surely believes she will fare better against McCain and has the demographic support in the Democratic party that Obama doesn’t. Would would-be Clinton voters really vote McCain if she isn’t hte nominee? We’ll see. Would Clinton accept the VP role if offered by Obama? Or will she take the battle all the way to the Denver convention? Out of pressure, the odds are that she won’t take this to Denver. it will be an interesting talk between Pelosi and Clinton if this goes another 30 days.

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There are 9 presidential primaries left. However, three primaries are Republican only – Nebraska, Idaho and New Mexico. The six (6) remaining Democratic primaries are West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota, all of which account for 217 pledged delegates.

Is the Democratic primary race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama over? Let’s do the math.

On the eve of the West Virginia primary, Clinton trails Obama by 168 combined pledged and super delegate votes. Obama currently has 1,865 total delegates so needs 160
delegates to secure the Democratic nomination (2,025 – 1,865 = 160). Clinton, incidentally, needs 328 delegate votes. At stake over the next few final weeks are only 217 pledged delegates, 103 of which are at stake on May 20th in the Oregon and Kentucky Democratic primaries. As a result, Clinton cannot win the nomination on pledged delegates. There aren’t enough to cover the 328 she needs. There are enough delegates, though, to cover the delegates (160) Obama needs to grab the nomination.

How likely is it that Obama can win 160 pledged delegates over the remaining six (6) Democratic primaries? Not too likely. Obama would need to carry 75% of the vote to get over the top. In fact, the best he’s done recently - pre Reverend Jeremiah Wright and associations with the Muslim religion - was the 61% he picked up in Wyoming back in early March. Even in Illinois on Super Tuesday, he could only muster 64% of the vote.

So, it seems, the whole shebang gets decided by super delegates or at the Democratic National Convention in Denver.

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Why Do Republican and Democratic Delegates Matter?

I remember Mike Huckabee saying after a Republican Presidential primary loss that his campaign still had steam and relevance as long as he was amassing delegates.

Today, Rudy Giuliani and John Edwards will announce that they are stopping the campaigns for President of the United States. Edwards has amassed 26 delegates to-date while
Giuliani has amassed 1 delegate. What happens to these delegates once the candidate drops out of the race? That answer to follow but first let’s talk about the definition of a delegate.

What is a delegate?

A delegate, typically referred to as a pledged delegate, is a state or locally -elected or -chosen individual who will vote for a specific candidate at the national convention. In other words, given John Edwards’ 26 delegates to-date, it is assumed that pledged delegates will vote John Edwards as the Democratic Parties national convention in Denver. Pledged democratic delegates are not bound to vote for the candidate they’re thought to be voting for (Republican pledged delegates must indicate candidate choice). However, candidates are the convention can review and eliminate delegates they think will not cote their way. Kind of a checks and balances selection process here. Democratic party superdelegates comprise a small percentage of the total delegate field and are comprised of unelected people such as Congressmen, governors, national committee members and national party leaders – even including past Presidents and Vice Presidents. The Republican party does not have superdelegates; rather, they have unpledged delegates who are not required to indicate a candidate preference. The unpledged delegate group is a high profile group, similar to the superdelegate group in the Democratic party in that they are comprised of national Republican party leaders.

The Democratic Party has a total of 4,049 delegates, 3,253 (or 80%) of which are pledged and 796 of which are superdelegates.

The Republican Party has a total of 2,380 delegates, 1,917 (or 80%) of which are pledged and 463 of which are superdelegates.

How Are Delegates Awarded?

The Democratic Party Awards delegates proportionate to the percentage of votes they receive in a primary. For instance, Clinton won 39% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary and therefore was awarded 39% of the 22 delegates available (9 delegates). A candidate, however, must win at least 15% of the vote to be awarded a delegate.

The Republican Party does not require that a candidate receive at least 15% of the primary vote to be awarded delegates. Typically, a candidate is awarded delegates in proportion to the amount of popular votes received.

What Happens With a Retired Candidate’s Delegates?

It appears to be a state-by-state process but the sentiment is that Democratic pledged delegates are not forced to vote for the candidate that earned them, regardless of whether that candidate is in the race or not. However, as politics goes, delegates will be persuaded to follow the lead of their candidate in pledging their delegate vote to another candidate. As an example, today John Edwards is dropping out of the race and has not pledged his support to Obama or Clinton – not yet anyway. Edwards has amassed 26 delegates so it would be assumed that they 1) remain loyal to Edwards and vote him at the national convention (remember, Democratic delegates do not need to pledge intentions), 2) transfer support to whomever Edwards supports (said to be noone or Obama, Clinton is tied to Washington establishment that Edwards rails against), or 3) go their own way and vote their conscience.

Republican pledged delegates must state voting intentions. Therefore, it is assumed that the intention of Giuliani’s 1 delegate will be known shortly. Giuliani will support McCain today so his delegate will probably move over to McCain, who has already amassed 95 pledged delegates.

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