Huckabee Strikes First, Wins West Virginia

McCain delegates, sensing 3rd place finish, back Huckabee, block Romney

SUPER TUESDAY – February 5, 2008

WEST VIRGINIA

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If you read the January edition of the Los Angeles CityBeat, a free monthly newsletter, you would think that Clinton will carry the day over Obama
on Super Tuesday (February 5th, 2008). Why?

One look at the issue positions held by Clinton and Obama reveal enough to begin the debate but as the long campaign for President of the United States
limps on, impressions create the lasting impressions.

For instance, Hillary Clinton supports strengthening the middle class by cutting taxes, improving wages, addressing the high cost of health care premiums (by socializing health care or lowering premiums – we don’t really know yet), and college tuition (what does making college accessible and affordable mean – subsidizing college tuitions? lobbying to lower costs per unit at community colleges or state-funded colleges?. Moreover, she promotes retirement savings among seniors and a $50 billion Stategic Energy Fund for alternative energy research. Asking how her administration will balance the cut in revenues has not been answered yet but I’m sure the Republicans will ask if she gains the 2008 Democratic nomination. Has taxing the rich ever created more jobs? Middle class families have tapped into home equity to fund costs-of-living, which is not good, but it has gotten worse with the high, burdgeoning rate of foreclosures around the country, especially in Florida and California. Clinton is tapping into discontent on the social and fiscal side.

Obama, similarly, is also tapping into discontent by calling for CHANGE. He wants to aid the struggling middle class by taxing the rich and giving tax relief to 150 million U.S. workers. Moreover, he wants to institute a universal mortgage credit, expand the earned income tax credit (EITC) for families and eliminate income taxes for seniors earning less than $50,000 annually.

OK, so each candidate has a plan for getting money out of the rich and giving more money back to the poor or middle-class. Still don’t know how you guys are going to pay for it all but I’m sure there’s a plan for it. Declining interests rate spur savings not spending by the populace. How will Obama and Clinton not force us into an expedited recession? I would have expected a plan from Hillary Clinton since she’s experienced the Presidential scene as First Lady. She’s even attempted to/succeeded in creating policy as First Lady and Senator from New York. Maybe she’s saving the recession/balance the budget gameplan for the Presidential debate. Maybe the Democratic constituency in this country doesn’t want to hear about balanced budgets. It’s possible. In the end, though, one or both will have to come clean about how they’ll pay for everything.

So, given that both candidates share similar views on the economy, how do we distinguish one from the other? Both would make for a great story: Clinton, the first woman elected to the Presidency, just 108 years after suffrage was voted in. It would also be a great story for Obama to be the fist black President in our nation’s history.

So, How Do We Tell Clinton and Obama Apart?

We tell Clinton and Obama apart through the things said, but motly not said. How does each respond to the other’s attacks, strategies and positions? How does each look when defending accusations and/or offering solutions? In the Nevada debate, each was asked to detail their greatest personal weakness. Obama issued an honest yet misguided admission: he said that he wasn’t good at personal organization. Oops! Clinton had a field day with that one. Because Obama appeared distraught over Clinton’s offensive, he appeared weak. Remember, we’re listening and observing. If Obama gets rattled at this nonsense, how will he deal in real negotiations with Iraq, Iran, with the Congress, etc.? Moreover, Clinton appears older, wiser, yes more stoic but also like a persistent negotiator, maybe even a good tactician. Some people think she pulled a fast one on Obama but voters aren’t naive. They realize they need a leader that can defend their territory even if that leader sometimes baits and plays a bit unfair. If you play unfair, you’d better win and that’s what Clinton did after Nevada.

The Los Angeles CityBeat believes Obama scored points in South Carolina by pointedly saying at a debate that he coudn’t tell who he was running against, Bill Clinton or Hillary Clinton. Good point but it sounded like he was complaining. He seemed to underscore the feeling amongst some voters that he is still a neophyte and perhaps requires a bit more seasoning. Leaders don’t complain outwardly. Leaders don’t cry. Obama can’t complain about a 2-for-1 Clinton-Clinton package. He’s got to be creative, intelligent and strategic in his responses to games that Clinton plays. He’s got to smile, not wince. Professional athletes do not telegraph injuries for fear of giving the opposition an edge. Professional politics follows the same rules. When he gets hurt the most, smile more broadly, carry a bigger swagger. What do you think got Reagan that early respect at the debates? Back to the Clinton-Clinton team: how could Obama not think to discredit Hillary’s cache with voters by accusing her of constantly needing Bill to out-voice her on the campaign stump? Is Hillary that weak where she needs her husband’s record and strength to conceal her own inability to connect with voters? Is Hillary intending to ride her husband’s leadership qualities to the White House? Is it not hard to realize that perhaps Bill Clinton is confusing Hillary’s campaign for his own? This is all fair game now and Obama is not correctly asking those questions. Obama will learn and will be a better candidate – but it might be as a candidate in 2012. Or can he get a new emboldened message across to the 50% of American voters that will be voting on Super Tuesday?

The question now is NOT about the message, it’s about who is the better leader. Both Hillary Clinton and Obama can do better. And they must do better not just to attain their short-term goals of winning the 2008 Presidential Democratic nomination but to realize the long-term goal of beating the Republican nominee in the general election.

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FLORIDA – January 29, 2008

Last night in Florida, Hillary Clinton’s campaign of middle-class relief and insurance reform clearly outperformed Barack Obama’s call for change in Florida, with Clinton beating Obama
50% to 33%. The Democratic primary vote is thought to have little impact on total delegates because the Democratic party’s national leadership said it would not allow Florida’s delegates to participate in the national convention. Why? Because Florida moved its state primary up ahead of Super Tuesday voting. Florida countered that it wanted its votes to be relevant since half of the country votes on Super Tuesday and a Presidential party nominee emerges at the end of the day. Primaries extend all the way through to June 3, 2008 (Montana-Dem, New Mexico-Rep, South Dakota). So, does the Clinton win and Obama loss matter? It depends of course with whom you speak. My Lamppost thinks it matters and agrees with Clinton. The Florida win gives CLinton momentum heading into Super Tuesday, it gives her relevance, a voice and an ability to raise more money for Super Tuesday campaigning. Obama, of course, will say, it doesn’t matter because no delegates were awarded. Word on CNN last night was that Democrats, especially Clinton, will fight hard to have Florida delegates seated at the nominazting convention in Denver, August 25-28.

Demographic Keys to Victory

Clinton outpolled Obama and Edwards on issues relating to the economy, health care and the war in Iraq. Demographic analysis shows that women, seniors, Latino voters and men (by a narrow margin) supported Clinton more so than her rivals. Obama had a step up on Clinton with voters under the age of 30 years but that demographic comprises only 10% of the voting total. Florida is mostly a seniors state (many from the Northeast) which is why Rudy Guiliani campaigned so heavily here. About 23% of voters said that experience was a determinant and Clinton won that round also. Obama had the support of blacks and probably will carry that support into Super Tuesday.

On the Republican side, McCain stunned Romney in a closed primary (only Republicans are allowed to vote for Republicans – no crossover voting is allowed) which is quite significant given the acrimonious history McCain has had with the party. Romney believed he had the economy vote given his long tenure as a successful businessman in Massachusetts. He was wrong and so were many of the pundits. McCain won the economy vote. McCain also won on national security (given his stellar military career and Florida ties). McCain also won amongst moderates and Hispanics but the one variable that seemed to put him over the top was the endorsement by Florida Governor Charlie Crist, a very popular governor. In an exit poll, almost half of the voters cited Crist’s endorsement as important in their decision-making and half of those voted for McCain. The true conservative vote did sway in Romney’s favor but only by a 10% margin, not enough to turn the overral totals in his favor.

Which Presidential Candidates Have the Edge Going Into Super Tuesday?

It appears that McCain and Clinton are on their way to gaining the official nomination of their respective parties as long as the trends hold true: McCain commanding the economy vote and Clinton winning big amongst women and holding on the experience vote. Romney’s focus on his business experience is not working. In years past, voters – although encouraged by candidates supporting change in a time of political, fiscal and economic turmoil – want their President to still be experienced enough in Washington politics to get things done. Although Romney was Governor of Massachusetts, his focus remains on his business leasdership. Moreover, McCain is a more of a known commodity. If McCain can address some semblance of a conservative platform and unite the parties base, he should have no problems gaining the Republican nomination. Clinton is competing against a Senator (Obama) that has limited political experience and it seems that experience will always beat high profile endorsements (Oprah, Caroline and Ted Kennedy endorsed Obama). Moreover, Obama’s heavy support within the black community will be more representative of Florida’s outcome. Although he controlled the black vote, blacks comprised only 10% of the overall electorate. Similarly, the only southern states voting on Super Tuesday are Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas and Tennessee. There are 17 other states, all mostly located in the Midwest and West involved in Super Tuesday voting. Here’s the wild card: Former President Bill Clinton. He apparently feels or has been advised that a 2-for-1 Presidential ticket (Bill/Hillary) is appealing to voters. If you didn’t know any differently and have been watching TV these past few weeks, you’d swear that Bill and Hillary are running mates. At times, its hard to distinguish Hillary’s voice in his. Could this hurt Hillary? Possibly. However, many voters doubting President Bush’s maturity level and experience had their fears assuaged because of his lineage (former President George H.W. Bush is his father obviously) and political ties (choice of Dick Cheney, a longtime politico in many Administrations). I believe the thinking is the same here. Bill Clinton enjoys a solid approval rating and may judge Hillary on Bill’s record. If so, the gamble may work. But, it is our belief that Hillary’s voice still needs to eclipse that of her husband’s to beat the Republican Presidential nominee.

The Democratic and Republican fields will narrow today with Guiliani and Edwards leaving the race. Guiliani is reportedly going to retire from the presidential race and give his support to McCain. It is believed that Guiliani will also campaign for McCain, a good friend. On the Democratic side, it is believed that John Edwards will also leave the presidential race, as soon as today. So, what happens to all of the delegates amassed by presidential hopefuls who retire from the race prematurely?

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Why did Rudy Giuliani basically forego all prior Republican primary elections thus far this year and place all of his eggs in the Florida primary election basket?

First, he never got on track after his abysmal showings in the Iowa Caucus (last place with 3% of the vote), Wyoming (0%), and then the New Hampshire Primary (4th place with 9% of the vote and in a virtual tie with Ron Paul). Michigan was not contested by Giuliani because it was Mitt Romney’s birth state.

Second, Giuliani is attacking Florida with gusto because Florida is home to retirees and refugees from the northeast (Giuliani is the former Mayor of New York City), many of which are the 3 million voters from that region aged 65 or older.

The Florida Republican primary, scheduled for Tuesday, January 29th, awards a winner-take-all 57 delegates to the winner.

Florida is thus far in this early primary election season the most diverse demographic state of which Hispanics represent 20% of the population and Blacks 16%. Florida is suffering in the pocketbook also. It was hit as hard as California in the housing market slump – the condo glut, mortgage fraud, high foreclosure rates and increased insurance premiums – so change is on the minds of people.

So, who will Republican voters choose? The social conservatives and religious right may opt for Huckabee; military veterans – no matter from where they once hailed – may choose McCain. Giuliani is riding the 9/11 catastrophe it seems, being backed by Pat Robertson – often at odds with Giuliani over social issues – because of his anti-terrorist stance. Are voters tired of 9/11? Will voters associate Giuliani with President Bush who is experiencing the lowest approval rating of any recent United States President?

In the latest CNN poll, McCain is leading Giuliani 26% to 22%. Huckabee and Romney follow with 17% and 16%, respectively.

When Is The Florida Democratic Primary Election?

When is the Florida Democratic Primary election, you ask? Well, there isn’t one. This year, the Democrats have punished Florida for going against Democratic party rules and moving the primary up to January 29th. Florida moved it up so it would be a relevant voice in determining the next President of the United States. Party officials there believe that primaries scheduled after Super Tuesday are irrelevant because nominees for each party are typically decided and/or cemented on that day. For what it’s worth, Clinton holds a commanding lead over Obama in Florida, with the New York Senator leading the Illinois Senator 50% to 28%. Edwards, the former North Carolina Senator, is a distant 3rd at 13%.

There are 25 total primaries on Super Tuesday of which there are 23 Republican primaries and 24 Democratic primaries.

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McCain Wins South Carolina

Florida Next – RCP Poll Shows McCain Edging Giuliani

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