My Lamppost

Counting Democratic pledged and super delegates, Barack Obama still maintains a healthy lead going into the next primary elections in Indiana and North Carolina on May 6th. Hillary Clinton is still trailing Obama by 125 delegates, 150 if you just count pledged delegates. Does Clinton still have a chance of upending Obama? Can she surpass him? Can she convince the super delegates that she is the best choice and despite what the pledged delegate count says, that she is the candidate that should receive the super delegate endorsement? If she does, she will be the Democratic nominee. Obama has alot of work in front of him. it didn’t have to be like this, Barack.

What happened in the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary?
In the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, there were lots of voters who decided their vote at the last minute and among those last minute voters about 60% voted for Clinton. Clinton also received alot of blue collar type votes, lots of women votes and lots of older votes.

But the real question is, why, after months and months of getting to know Clinton and Obama, are there so many people deciding their vote at the last minute? Are people wanting to vote for Obama but still walking uneasy not knowing what’s behind the rhetoric? Did the last debate held on April 16th have anything to do with it? The debate was watched by more Americans (10 million) than any other debate we’ve had so far in this 2008 Presidential Primary season.

Obama is definitely getting rocked a bit by probing interview questions but I guess that comes with the turf when you’re the front-runner because the the only negative to standing on the front-runner throne is that we Americans like to bounce you off of it. Pretty large negative. Just ask Britney Spears. Clinton began her campaign stating emphatically that she was more than prepared to be the next Commander-in-Chief, citing experience in the Oval Office as First Lady and as Senator from New York. Obama can’t match her record as hard as he tries - one term as Illinois Senator - so has tried to rely on rhetoric - “CHANGE” - and endorsements (read: fundraising).

Many American voters will prop you up on good looks and rhetoric but, in the end, it really does boil down to issues and experience which may explain teh high number of last minute voters in Pennsylvania. When pressed by the media about the effect on revenues given an increase in the capital gains tax, Obama seemed ill-prepared to answer. (The question was based on that fact that government revenues actually increased when the capital gains tax was cut. Conversely, government revenues decreased when the capital gains rate was increased.)

We are entering the proverbial 4th quarter of the 2008 Democratic Primary season. It is one thing to build a lead, another to maintain it and quite another to preserve it when the momentum swings to your opponent. American voters are asking the tough questions (through the media and blogs) and this requires that a few layers of Obama’s “issue onion” be peeled back. What is underneath the “CHANGE” rhetoric? Does he understand economics, social policy, foreign policy. Is he poised enough? When TV viewers witness frustration, discontent and non-answers, they project that on to other issues, challenges and confrontations. Can Obama stand strong against other foreign leaders? Can he ably negotiate with Republicans if the Democrats do not gain a majority in the mid-term elections? Basically, does he really and truly “get it”?

Clinton, on the other hand, is somewhat ascerbic and not as good-looking as Obama. She lacks charisma and really does have a whiney voice. Does she have to continually yell into that microphone of hers? Does she think I can’t hear her? But, in the end, who do you trust in the White House? Clinton is right. She has been there. She has had on-the-job training and was given Presidential-type responsibilities while acting as First Lady. She is smart, like Obama, but seems better prepared to stand up to resistance, discontent and threats. She seems better prepared to lead.

The opinon of the Lamppost is this: Obama could have secured the Democratic nomination a while back but super delegates, and now regular voters, are wondering if he really is
better than Clinton and if he even has a chance in hell of beating McCain. So many super delegates are worried, in our opinion, that he will be swallowed whole by McCain. And, we
tend to think this is possible because “change” rhetoric will not fly in the general Presidential election debates. The issues will be debated. A grasp of economics will be required. So will a pragmatic and experienced view of foreign policy.

The super delegates are awaiting a few things before they really commit to either Democratic candidate: one, they want to see how the country continues to vote in the seven (7 Democratic primaries that remain, and two, they will take measure of each as a viable opponent to John McCain, the 2008 Republican nominee for President. The feeling is that if Clinton continues to trail Obama in pledged delegate totals yet continues to mount momentum with primary victories, the super delegates will not support Obama and swing the nomination to Clinton. In effect, the race is tied. Whichi candidate will reach down and grab that “something extra” to convince us of his or her strength, intelligence, quick wit and poise?

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Yeah, yeah, Barack Obama has swept the past 9 consecutive democratic primaries by my count, has grabbed the spotlight and has the edge in charisma. As a result, you’d think that he was ahead by a McCain-country mile.

Well, after his 9-state sweep, Obama is ahead by only 98 delegates with the March 4th democratic primary elections upcoming. (On March 4th, Democratic state primaries are held in Rhode Island, Vermont, Texas, and Ohio.) Because the Democratic primaries were not winner take all primaries, Hillary Clinton was apportioned delegates based on her percentage of votes, thus keeping the 2nd place finisher in the race. But, it is getting tight now.

What does Obama’s 98 delegate lead mean? Is he ahead by a McCain country-mile or is the Democratic race basically tied?

If you look at the number of state primaries remaining (14) as well as the number of delegates up for grabs (922), you’d think the race was about tied and that no matter the results of March 4th, Hillary Clinton would still live to fight another day.

But, on closer look, it appears Hillary Clinton has to win either Ohio or Texas to remain in the race.

Here’s why:
Given the past 9 primaries, Obama has won by an average of 64%. Let’s say he sweeps the March 4th primaries (TX, OH, VT, RI) with the same vote percentage and let’s say Clinton takes the remaining 36%. Obama would win 237 out of 370 pledged delegates available while Clinton would capture 133, leaving them with 1,609 and 1,407 delegates, respectively. The math says that Obama would be ahead by 202 delegates, not counting superdelegates. A lead of 202 delegates with momentum could prove insurmountable given that the state primaries that follow, even though they represent the remaining 720 delegates, really do not have many delegates to give separately, other than Pennsylvania and Indiana.

If Clinton loses Texas and Ohio, she would have to literally shut out Obama in Pennsylvania and Indiana to come back which in all likelihood won’t happen given Obama’s would-be momentum and that we’d be in the homestretch of the primary race.

Remaining Democratic State Primaries:

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Republicans are known for their unity and today Mitt Romney sought to unite the Republican party and its conservative base behind John McCain. A fractured Republican party leading up to the September nominating convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul would not have proved strategic with the general election only a couple of months after that.

It was clear that McCain and Romney did not see eye to eye. McCain is known as more of a moderate Republican often walking across the aisle to work with Democrats. Romney advocates a more staunch conservative Republican ideology. But, Romney has conceded that Republican Party unity and the chance to settle the Party going into general elections is paramount and more important than his own aspirations - at least in this election year. But, believe me, Republicans do not forget. When it comes time for Romney to run again in 2012 or 2016, he will have support as a result of his actions today.

I prefer McCain’s strategy of reconciliation and compromise to Obama’s “We Need Change” credo. In our government, we don’t suffer naive mavericks gladly. Reagan, no matter what you think, was a maverick but a maverick with a plan and respect for his colleagueas. Hell, he once was a Democrat. The President of the United States has to compromise, negotiate, prod and convince Congress and the House of Representatives that his ideas are worth merit - that is unless the majority on both sides belong to the President’s Party. So why Barack Obama is giving the indication he will go it alone and change Washington is beyond me. Washington “insiders” don’t change unless there’s something in it for them.

So What Happens to Romney’s Delegates?

B Simpson asked that very question. Delegates - both pledged and super delegates - are not bound to vote for the candidate that leaves a primary race for President in our United States. However, delegates usually vote according to the retired candidates’ endorsement. For example, today, February 14th, 2008, Mitt Romney officially endorsed John McCain for President and asked his delegates to follow suit. It is expected that his 280 delegates will unite behind Romney’s sentiment and vote for McCain also. This is typically what happens in a Priamry race as a candidate begins to emerge. However, this year may be different. The reason Huckabee is still in the running is because a good percentage of conservative Republicans stand behind his ideologies and are unsure of McCain’s conservative leanings. Well, it’s more like they doubt that McCain will aptly represent their conservative social agenda. So, don’t be surprised if, at the Republican convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul in September, some of Romney’s delegates swing to Huckabee. Last point, the swing in delegate votes from Romney to Huckabee could be a mute point if McCain secures more than the 1,191 delegates needed to nominate the Republican candidate for President BEFOREHAND. If all of Romney’s delegates were to swing to McCain, McCain would have 1,123 delegates today, just 68 delegates shy of the nomination.So, there you go - delegates can do whatever they want to do at the convention. I’m even pretty sure that they don’t have to endorse McCain if they feel too separated
from his agenda. If the race were closer and McCain needed the votes, you’d see some major concessions coming from the McCain camp. He already has made quite a few to the conservative base, I’m sure, which accounts for his large lead over Huckabee.

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Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachuetts, has retired from the 2008 Presidential race.

Romney is a Republican and was competing against John McCain, Senator from Arizona, and Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas, for the privilege of representing the Republican Party in the general election for President in November.

Initially it was believed that Mitt Romney was the Republican Party’s best chance of beating either Clinton or Obama on the Democratic side in the general election. he understood the economy, backed the conservative policies of George Bush and appealed to conservative Republicans. That is, until Super Tuesday ended.

In Super Tuesday voting, it was clear that Mike Huckabee had as much of a stronghold on conservative Republicans as did Romney and, in the end, Huckabee won (with McCain’s help beginning in West Virginia). Romney won the states of Alaska, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, North Daokata and Utah. However, Huckabee took the states known for their conservative appeal and the states many describe as the conservative base of the Repblican Party: the South. Huckabee won the states of Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee and West Virginia. In the end, Romeny emerged with about 50 more delegates than Huckabee but he fell short of convincing conservatives of the same ilk that he should be their choice for President. And that spelled doom for Mitt Romney’s campaign.

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