I’ve watched the Presidential primary debates the past two nights, first the Republican debate at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, CA last night and the Democratic Primary debate tonight at the Kodak Theatre in Hollywood. While each candidate offered striking arguments as to why he or she would make our next great President, I couldn’t help but be a bit sickened at the over-preparedness of each candidate. Simple questions were turned into pre-meditated soliloques that half-addressed the question asked. Reminded me of my college entrance interviews. So, I am thinking tonight of the issues and trying to categorize each remaining candidate’s strength in my mind according to important voting variables.

Question #1: Which Candidates appear more Presidential? Who would look better giving the State of the Union Address?

• McCain - cool, calm, collected, thoughful, forceful, maintained a presence, not shaken by accusation - the guy was tortured in a POW camp for years - what WOULD scare him? - not Romney
• Obama - concensus-maker, serious, determined, has opinions but is young enough to listen, tall, demeanor not overtaken by the stress of the event, not yet at least
• Clinton - educated, experienced, carries herself well, has mind made up, short height - looking up to Obama not a plus
• Romney - well-coiffed, coy, has stature, seems a bit of a neophyte and overly defensive when confronted by McCain
• Huckabee - jolly good guy, seems honest, convinced of beliefs, doesn’t appear to have a leader-type face or demeanor for President
• Paul - I like him and love his honesty and determination to get discussions on track but he would look out-of-place addressing the nation

Question #2: Which Candidates spared us the prepared packages of politico-speak and actually addressed the debate questions?

• Paul - is it the less you have to lose the more honest you are?
• McCain
• Obama
• Huckabee
• Clinton
• Romney

Question #3: Which Candidates would I like to have dinner with?

• Obama
• Paul
• McCain
• Romney
• Huckabee
• Clinton

Question #4: Which Candidates would scare terrorists and oppressionists?

• McCain - POW for 5 years, solitary confinement for 2 years, refusing to abandon his comrades after he was offered the opportunity to go home, torture every 2 hours
• Romney
• Clinton
• Obama
• Paul
• Huckabee

Question #5: Which Candidates would you trust with the economy?

• McCain
• Romney
• Huckabee
• Paul
• Clinton
• Obama

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FLORIDA - January 29, 2008

Last night in Florida, Hillary Clinton’s campaign of middle-class relief and insurance reform clearly outperformed Barack Obama’s call for change in Florida, with Clinton beating Obama
50% to 33%. The Democratic primary vote is thought to have little impact on total delegates because the Democratic party’s national leadership said it would not allow Florida’s delegates to participate in the national convention. Why? Because Florida moved its state primary up ahead of Super Tuesday voting. Florida countered that it wanted its votes to be relevant since half of the country votes on Super Tuesday and a Presidential party nominee emerges at the end of the day. Primaries extend all the way through to June 3, 2008 (Montana-Dem, New Mexico-Rep, South Dakota). So, does the Clinton win and Obama loss matter? It depends of course with whom you speak. My Lamppost thinks it matters and agrees with Clinton. The Florida win gives CLinton momentum heading into Super Tuesday, it gives her relevance, a voice and an ability to raise more money for Super Tuesday campaigning. Obama, of course, will say, it doesn’t matter because no delegates were awarded. Word on CNN last night was that Democrats, especially Clinton, will fight hard to have Florida delegates seated at the nominazting convention in Denver, August 25-28.

Demographic Keys to Victory

Clinton outpolled Obama and Edwards on issues relating to the economy, health care and the war in Iraq. Demographic analysis shows that women, seniors, Latino voters and men (by a narrow margin) supported Clinton more so than her rivals. Obama had a step up on Clinton with voters under the age of 30 years but that demographic comprises only 10% of the voting total. Florida is mostly a seniors state (many from the Northeast) which is why Rudy Guiliani campaigned so heavily here. About 23% of voters said that experience was a determinant and Clinton won that round also. Obama had the support of blacks and probably will carry that support into Super Tuesday.

On the Republican side, McCain stunned Romney in a closed primary (only Republicans are allowed to vote for Republicans - no crossover voting is allowed) which is quite significant given the acrimonious history McCain has had with the party. Romney believed he had the economy vote given his long tenure as a successful businessman in Massachusetts. He was wrong and so were many of the pundits. McCain won the economy vote. McCain also won on national security (given his stellar military career and Florida ties). McCain also won amongst moderates and Hispanics but the one variable that seemed to put him over the top was the endorsement by Florida Governor Charlie Crist, a very popular governor. In an exit poll, almost half of the voters cited Crist’s endorsement as important in their decision-making and half of those voted for McCain. The true conservative vote did sway in Romney’s favor but only by a 10% margin, not enough to turn the overral totals in his favor.

Which Presidential Candidates Have the Edge Going Into Super Tuesday?

It appears that McCain and Clinton are on their way to gaining the official nomination of their respective parties as long as the trends hold true: McCain commanding the economy vote and Clinton winning big amongst women and holding on the experience vote. Romney’s focus on his business experience is not working. In years past, voters - although encouraged by candidates supporting change in a time of political, fiscal and economic turmoil - want their President to still be experienced enough in Washington politics to get things done. Although Romney was Governor of Massachusetts, his focus remains on his business leasdership. Moreover, McCain is a more of a known commodity. If McCain can address some semblance of a conservative platform and unite the parties base, he should have no problems gaining the Republican nomination. Clinton is competing against a Senator (Obama) that has limited political experience and it seems that experience will always beat high profile endorsements (Oprah, Caroline and Ted Kennedy endorsed Obama). Moreover, Obama’s heavy support within the black community will be more representative of Florida’s outcome. Although he controlled the black vote, blacks comprised only 10% of the overall electorate. Similarly, the only southern states voting on Super Tuesday are Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas and Tennessee. There are 17 other states, all mostly located in the Midwest and West involved in Super Tuesday voting. Here’s the wild card: Former President Bill Clinton. He apparently feels or has been advised that a 2-for-1 Presidential ticket (Bill/Hillary) is appealing to voters. If you didn’t know any differently and have been watching TV these past few weeks, you’d swear that Bill and Hillary are running mates. At times, its hard to distinguish Hillary’s voice in his. Could this hurt Hillary? Possibly. However, many voters doubting President Bush’s maturity level and experience had their fears assuaged because of his lineage (former President George H.W. Bush is his father obviously) and political ties (choice of Dick Cheney, a longtime politico in many Administrations). I believe the thinking is the same here. Bill Clinton enjoys a solid approval rating and may judge Hillary on Bill’s record. If so, the gamble may work. But, it is our belief that Hillary’s voice still needs to eclipse that of her husband’s to beat the Republican Presidential nominee.

The Democratic and Republican fields will narrow today with Guiliani and Edwards leaving the race. Guiliani is reportedly going to retire from the presidential race and give his support to McCain. It is believed that Guiliani will also campaign for McCain, a good friend. On the Democratic side, it is believed that John Edwards will also leave the presidential race, as soon as today. So, what happens to all of the delegates amassed by presidential hopefuls who retire from the race prematurely?

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Why Do Republican and Democratic Delegates Matter?

I remember Mike Huckabee saying after a Republican Presidential primary loss that his campaign still had steam and relevance as long as he was amassing delegates.

Today, Rudy Giuliani and John Edwards will announce that they are stopping the campaigns for President of the United States. Edwards has amassed 26 delegates to-date while
Giuliani has amassed 1 delegate. What happens to these delegates once the candidate drops out of the race? That answer to follow but first let’s talk about the definition of a delegate.

What is a delegate?

A delegate, typically referred to as a pledged delegate, is a state or locally -elected or -chosen individual who will vote for a specific candidate at the national convention. In other words, given John Edwards’ 26 delegates to-date, it is assumed that pledged delegates will vote John Edwards as the Democratic Parties national convention in Denver. Pledged democratic delegates are not bound to vote for the candidate they’re thought to be voting for (Republican pledged delegates must indicate candidate choice). However, candidates are the convention can review and eliminate delegates they think will not cote their way. Kind of a checks and balances selection process here. Democratic party superdelegates comprise a small percentage of the total delegate field and are comprised of unelected people such as Congressmen, governors, national committee members and national party leaders – even including past Presidents and Vice Presidents. The Republican party does not have superdelegates; rather, they have unpledged delegates who are not required to indicate a candidate preference. The unpledged delegate group is a high profile group, similar to the superdelegate group in the Democratic party in that they are comprised of national Republican party leaders.

The Democratic Party has a total of 4,049 delegates, 3,253 (or 80%) of which are pledged and 796 of which are superdelegates.

The Republican Party has a total of 2,380 delegates, 1,917 (or 80%) of which are pledged and 463 of which are superdelegates.

How Are Delegates Awarded?

The Democratic Party Awards delegates proportionate to the percentage of votes they receive in a primary. For instance, Clinton won 39% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary and therefore was awarded 39% of the 22 delegates available (9 delegates). A candidate, however, must win at least 15% of the vote to be awarded a delegate.

The Republican Party does not require that a candidate receive at least 15% of the primary vote to be awarded delegates. Typically, a candidate is awarded delegates in proportion to the amount of popular votes received.

What Happens With a Retired Candidate’s Delegates?

It appears to be a state-by-state process but the sentiment is that Democratic pledged delegates are not forced to vote for the candidate that earned them, regardless of whether that candidate is in the race or not. However, as politics goes, delegates will be persuaded to follow the lead of their candidate in pledging their delegate vote to another candidate. As an example, today John Edwards is dropping out of the race and has not pledged his support to Obama or Clinton – not yet anyway. Edwards has amassed 26 delegates so it would be assumed that they 1) remain loyal to Edwards and vote him at the national convention (remember, Democratic delegates do not need to pledge intentions), 2) transfer support to whomever Edwards supports (said to be noone or Obama, Clinton is tied to Washington establishment that Edwards rails against), or 3) go their own way and vote their conscience.

Republican pledged delegates must state voting intentions. Therefore, it is assumed that the intention of Giuliani’s 1 delegate will be known shortly. Giuliani will support McCain today so his delegate will probably move over to McCain, who has already amassed 95 pledged delegates.

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Bill Clinton on Tuesday announced that he was running for President in 2008. The reports stunned his wife and even more astonishingly, he has raised $550 million since yesterday, reports The Onion. Read the full story as reported by The Onion.

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Why did Rudy Giuliani basically forego all prior Republican primary elections thus far this year and place all of his eggs in the Florida primary election basket?

First, he never got on track after his abysmal showings in the Iowa Caucus (last place with 3% of the vote), Wyoming (0%), and then the New Hampshire Primary (4th place with 9% of the vote and in a virtual tie with Ron Paul). Michigan was not contested by Giuliani because it was Mitt Romney’s birth state.

Second, Giuliani is attacking Florida with gusto because Florida is home to retirees and refugees from the northeast (Giuliani is the former Mayor of New York City), many of which are the 3 million voters from that region aged 65 or older.

The Florida Republican primary, scheduled for Tuesday, January 29th, awards a winner-take-all 57 delegates to the winner.

Florida is thus far in this early primary election season the most diverse demographic state of which Hispanics represent 20% of the population and Blacks 16%. Florida is suffering in the pocketbook also. It was hit as hard as California in the housing market slump - the condo glut, mortgage fraud, high foreclosure rates and increased insurance premiums - so change is on the minds of people.

So, who will Republican voters choose? The social conservatives and religious right may opt for Huckabee; military veterans – no matter from where they once hailed – may choose McCain. Giuliani is riding the 9/11 catastrophe it seems, being backed by Pat Robertson – often at odds with Giuliani over social issues – because of his anti-terrorist stance. Are voters tired of 9/11? Will voters associate Giuliani with President Bush who is experiencing the lowest approval rating of any recent United States President?

In the latest CNN poll, McCain is leading Giuliani 26% to 22%. Huckabee and Romney follow with 17% and 16%, respectively.

When Is The Florida Democratic Primary Election?

When is the Florida Democratic Primary election, you ask? Well, there isn’t one. This year, the Democrats have punished Florida for going against Democratic party rules and moving the primary up to January 29th. Florida moved it up so it would be a relevant voice in determining the next President of the United States. Party officials there believe that primaries scheduled after Super Tuesday are irrelevant because nominees for each party are typically decided and/or cemented on that day. For what it’s worth, Clinton holds a commanding lead over Obama in Florida, with the New York Senator leading the Illinois Senator 50% to 28%. Edwards, the former North Carolina Senator, is a distant 3rd at 13%.

There are 25 total primaries on Super Tuesday of which there are 23 Republican primaries and 24 Democratic primaries.

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McCain Wins South Carolina

Florida Next - RCP Poll Shows McCain Edging Giuliani

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What is the Iowa Caucus?

The Iowa caucuses are part of our electoral process where Iowa registered voters help to select the Democratic and Republican representatives for President of the United States. All registered voters – even those not registered to vote in Iowa, i.e., media members, underage voters – meet in precinct caucuses such as homes, schools, churches, and public libraries to elect delegates to a county convention. Since there are 99 counties there are 99 conventions. There are 1784 precincts – that’s’ a lot of beer, wine and chips sold on these evenings! The 99 conventions select delegates for both Iowa’s Congressional District Convention and the State Convention, and they, in turn select delegates for the Presidential Primaries – also known as a nominating convention.

A caucus is generally much different from the typical primary election, such as New Hampshire. In New Hampshire, registered voters cast individual secret ballots at thousands of available polling stations. Each vote is tallied and the presidential nominee from each political party that has received the most votes wins the New Hampshire primary and direct national delegates are awarded.

A caucus is regarded by Iowans as a gathering of neighbors. So, instead of casting a vote at a polling station, Iowans gather at a location and sketch out what they want their political parties’ platform to be then elect delegates to carry their platform resolutions to a county convention to elect state delegates who will, in turn, elect national convention delegates.

As an example, Iowa Republicans gather and are issued blank pieces of paper – there are no candidate names on them! - on which they write the name of the preferred presidential party candidate – this of course after a few hours of discourse from the candidates, candidate representatives or meeting speakers themselves. In 2008, some precincts asked for a show of hands to tabulate votes. The delegates from these precinct caucuses move on to the county convention to choose delegates to the district convention and it is the district convention delegates that select other delegates to go to the Iowa Republican State Convention where political party candidates are voted on. Here’s the rub: it seems that delegates do not have to abide by the results of the precinct caucus – or in other words, Iowa State Convention delegates do not have to abide by the intentions or requests of the voters. Today, with media attention though, precinct results are broadcast immediately so pressure seems to be on the State convention delegates to vote according to the people they represent.

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courtesy Fred Palmerino Photography

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